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A Mathematical Description of Selected Energy Transition Scenarios in the 21st Century, Intended to Realize the Main Goals of the Paris Climate Agreement

Author

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  • Askar A. Akaev

    (Faculty of Global Studies, Moscow State University, 119234 Moscow, Russia)

  • Olga I. Davydova

    (Faculty of Global Studies, Moscow State University, 119234 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

On 4 November 2016, the historic Paris Climate Agreement of the United Nations entered into force, requiring signatory countries to maintain global warming at the level of 1.5–2 °C. According to the calculations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to achieve this goal, a 2/3 reduction in greenhouse gas energy emissions into the atmosphere compared with gaseous energy-related emissions in 2019 (33.3 Gt) by about 2050 (1.5 °C) or by 2070 (2 °C) is required. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), this is only possible with the implementation of a great energy transition from the use of currently dominant fossil hydrocarbon fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—to the predominant use of renewable energy sources (RES) by 2040–2050, when the share of renewable energy in the total energy balance will reach 40% and above. In this work, mathematical description of an upcoming energy transition has been carried out, including long-term scenario writing of the world’s demographic dynamics and global energy demand, calculation of the dynamics of industrial CO 2 emissions and CO 2 accumulation in the Earth’s atmosphere, as well as the corresponding changes in the average global temperature of the Earth’s surface in the 21st century. A mathematical description of the impact of energy consumption on climate change was carried out taking into account long-term trends in the dynamics of energy consumption. Using the performed mathematically-oriented scenario writing, it is suggested that a great energy transition with the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement is possible only by 2060. Renewable energy could sufficiently displace and replace hydrocarbon fuels to achieve climate safety without compromising economic development. As a result, humanity will receive an environmentally friendly decentralized distributed energy system, connected by «smart» grids, controlled by intelligent digital technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Askar A. Akaev & Olga I. Davydova, 2021. "A Mathematical Description of Selected Energy Transition Scenarios in the 21st Century, Intended to Realize the Main Goals of the Paris Climate Agreement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-28, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:9:p:2558-:d:546413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ekaterina Matus & Olga Sukhova & Ilyas Ismagilov & Mikhail Kerzhentsev & Olga Stonkus & Zinfer Ismagilov, 2021. "Hydrogen Production through Autothermal Reforming of Ethanol: Enhancement of Ni Catalyst Performance via Promotion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Donato Morea & Mohamad El Mehtedi & Pasquale Buonadonna, 2023. "Energy Context: Analysis of Selected Studies and Future Research Developments," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-6, February.
    3. Oluwatobi Allen & Oghenekevwe Kofi, 2024. "The Importance of Renewable Energy for Telecommunications Base Stations," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(7), pages 3363-3369, July.
    4. Nerea Portillo Juan & Vicente Negro Valdecantos & José María del Campo, 2022. "A New Climate Change Analysis Parameter: A Global or a National Approach Dilemma," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Gustavo G. Koch & Caio R. D. Osório & Ricardo C. L. F. Oliveira & Vinícius F. Montagner, 2023. "Robust Control Based on Observed States Designed by Means of Linear Matrix Inequalities for Grid-Connected Converters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Askar A. Akaev & Olga I. Davydova, 2021. "Mathematical Description of Energy Transition Scenarios Based on the Latest Technologies and Trends," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-25, December.

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