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It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Author

Listed:
  • Sven Teske

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Thomas Pregger

    (Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Sonja Simon

    (Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Tobias Naegler

    (Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Johannes Pagenkopf

    (Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Özcan Deniz

    (Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Bent van den Adel

    (Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Kate Dooley

    (Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia)

  • Malte Meinshausen

    (Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia)

Abstract

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO 2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO 2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Teske & Thomas Pregger & Sonja Simon & Tobias Naegler & Johannes Pagenkopf & Özcan Deniz & Bent van den Adel & Kate Dooley & Malte Meinshausen, 2021. "It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2103-:d:533320
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