IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i23p7878-d686857.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Fast and Accurate Wind Speed and Direction Nowcasting Model for Renewable Energy Management Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Saira Al-Zadjali

    (Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman)

  • Ahmed Al Maashri

    (Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman)

  • Amer Al-Hinai

    (Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman
    Sustainable Energy Research Center, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman)

  • Rashid Al Abri

    (Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman
    Sustainable Energy Research Center, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman)

  • Swaroop Gajare

    (Sustainable Energy Research Center, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman)

  • Sultan Al Yahyai

    (Information and Technology, Mazoon Electricity Company, Fanja 600, Oman)

  • Mostafa Bakhtvar

    (Sustainable Energy Research Center, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khodh 123, Oman)

Abstract

To plan operations and avoid any grid disturbances, power utilities require accurate power generation estimates for renewable generation. The generation estimates for wind power stations require an accurate prediction of wind speed and direction. This paper proposes a new prediction model for nowcasting the wind speed and direction, which can be used to predict the output of a wind power plant. The proposed model uses perturbed observations to train the ensemble networks. The trained model is then used to predict the wind speed and direction. The paper performs a comparative assessment of three artificial neural network models. It also studies the performance of introducing perturbed observations to the model using six different interpolation techniques. For each technique, the computational efficiency is measured and assessed. Furthermore, the paper presents an exhaustive investigation of the performance of neural network types and several techniques in training, data splitting, and interpolation. To check the efficacy of the proposed model, the power output from a real wind farm is predicted and compared with the actual recorded measurements. The results of the comprehensive analysis show that the proposed model outperforms contending models in terms of accuracy and execution time. Therefore, this model can be used by operators to reliably generate a dispatch plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Saira Al-Zadjali & Ahmed Al Maashri & Amer Al-Hinai & Rashid Al Abri & Swaroop Gajare & Sultan Al Yahyai & Mostafa Bakhtvar, 2021. "A Fast and Accurate Wind Speed and Direction Nowcasting Model for Renewable Energy Management Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:23:p:7878-:d:686857
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/23/7878/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/23/7878/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Took, C. Cheong & Strbac, G. & Aihara, K. & Mandic, D.P., 2011. "Quaternion-valued short-term joint forecasting of three-dimensional wind and atmospheric parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1754-1760.
    2. Gallego, C. & Pinson, P. & Madsen, H. & Costa, A. & Cuerva, A., 2011. "Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics – Application to offshore very short-term forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 4087-4096.
    3. Velázquez, Sergio & Carta, José A. & Matías, J.M., 2011. "Influence of the input layer signals of ANNs on wind power estimation for a target site: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 1556-1566, April.
    4. Ramasamy, P. & Chandel, S.S. & Yadav, Amit Kumar, 2015. "Wind speed prediction in the mountainous region of India using an artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 338-347.
    5. Zhang, Jie & Cui, Mingjian & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Florita, Anthony & Freedman, Jeffrey, 2017. "Ramp forecasting performance from improved short-term wind power forecasting over multiple spatial and temporal scales," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 528-541.
    6. Saira Al-Zadjali & Ahmed Al Maashri & Amer Al-Hinai & Sultan Al-Yahyai & Mostafa Bakhtvar, 2019. "An Accurate, Light-Weight Wind Speed Predictor for Renewable Energy Management Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-20, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Piotrowski & Inajara Rutyna & Dariusz Baczyński & Marcin Kopyt, 2022. "Evaluation Metrics for Wind Power Forecasts: A Comprehensive Review and Statistical Analysis of Errors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-38, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    2. Wang, Yun & Wang, Haibo & Srinivasan, Dipti & Hu, Qinghua, 2019. "Robust functional regression for wind speed forecasting based on Sparse Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 43-60.
    3. Shahram Hanifi & Xiaolei Liu & Zi Lin & Saeid Lotfian, 2020. "A Critical Review of Wind Power Forecasting Methods—Past, Present and Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Wang, Yun & Hu, Qinghua & Meng, Deyu & Zhu, Pengfei, 2017. "Deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting using a variational Bayesian-based adaptive robust multi-kernel regression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1097-1112.
    5. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    6. Fazelpour, Farivar & Markarian, Elin & Soltani, Nima, 2017. "Wind energy potential and economic assessment of four locations in Sistan and Balouchestan province in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 646-667.
    7. Dongxiao Niu & Yi Liang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2017. "Wind Speed Forecasting Based on EMD and GRNN Optimized by FOA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    9. Yiqi Chu & Chengcai Li & Yefang Wang & Jing Li & Jian Li, 2016. "A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    10. Wimhurst, Joshua J. & Greene, J. Scott, 2019. "Oklahoma's future wind energy resources and their relationship with the Central Plains low-level jet," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Hannah Jessie Rani R. & Aruldoss Albert Victoire T., 2018. "Training radial basis function networks for wind speed prediction using PSO enhanced differential search optimizer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-35, May.
    12. Khaled, Mohamed & Ibrahim, Mostafa M. & Abdel Hamed, Hesham E. & AbdelGwad, Ahmed F., 2019. "Investigation of a small Horizontal–Axis wind turbine performance with and without winglet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    13. António Couto & Paula Costa & Teresa Simões, 2021. "Identification of Extreme Wind Events Using a Weather Type Classification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, July.
    14. Burlibaşa, A. & Ceangă, E., 2013. "Rotationally sampled spectrum approach for simulation of wind speed turbulence in large wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 624-635.
    15. Sareen, Karan & Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan & Shikhola, Tushar & Sharma, Rajneesh, 2023. "An imputation and decomposition algorithms based integrated approach with bidirectional LSTM neural network for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    16. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    17. Yitian Xing & Fue-Sang Lien & William Melek & Eugene Yee, 2022. "A Multi-Hour Ahead Wind Power Forecasting System Based on a WRF-TOPSIS-ANFIS Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-35, July.
    18. G. Ponkumar & S. Jayaprakash & Karthick Kanagarathinam, 2023. "Advanced Machine Learning Techniques for Accurate Very-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting in Wind Energy Systems Using Historical Data Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    19. Shin, Heesoo & Rüttgers, Mario & Lee, Sangseung, 2023. "Effects of spatiotemporal correlations in wind data on neural network-based wind predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    20. Gomez, William & Wang, Fu-Kwun & Lo, Shih-Che, 2024. "A hybrid approach based machine learning models in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:23:p:7878-:d:686857. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.