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An Ensemble Forecasting Model of Wind Power Outputs Based on Improved Statistical Approaches

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  • Yeojin Kim

    (Department of Energy Grid, Sangmyung University, Seoul 03016, Korea)

  • Jin Hur

    (Department of Energy Grid, Sangmyung University, Seoul 03016, Korea)

Abstract

The number of wind-generating resources has increased considerably, owing to concerns over the environmental impact of fossil-fuel combustion. Therefore, wind power forecasting is becoming an important issue for large-scale wind power grid integration. Ensemble forecasting, which combines several forecasting techniques, is considered a viable alternative to conventional single-model-based forecasting for improving the forecasting accuracy. In this work, we propose the day-ahead ensemble forecasting of wind power using statistical methods. The ensemble forecasting model consists of three single forecasting approaches: autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX), support vector regression (SVR), and the Monte Carlo simulation-based power curve model. To apply the methodology, we conducted forecasting using the historical data of wind farms located on Jeju Island, Korea. The results were compared between a single model and an ensemble model to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeojin Kim & Jin Hur, 2020. "An Ensemble Forecasting Model of Wind Power Outputs Based on Improved Statistical Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:5:p:1071-:d:326735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2020. "The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Xiaoxun, Zhu & Zixu, Xu & Yu, Wang & Xiaoxia, Gao & Xinyu, Hang & Hongkun, Lu & Ruizhang, Liu & Yao, Chen & Huaxin, Liu, 2023. "Research on wind speed behavior prediction method based on multi-feature and multi-scale integrated learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    4. Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro & Stéfano Frizzo Stefenon & José Donizetti de Lima & Ademir Nied & Viviana Cocco Mariani & Leandro dos Santos Coelho, 2020. "Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Self-Adaptive Decomposition and Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-22, October.
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    7. Marta Poncela-Blanco & Pilar Poncela, 2021. "Improving Wind Power Forecasts: Combination through Multivariate Dimension Reduction Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Chao-Ming Huang & Shin-Ju Chen & Sung-Pei Yang & Hsin-Jen Chen, 2023. "One-Day-Ahead Hourly Wind Power Forecasting Using Optimized Ensemble Prediction Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    10. Thiago Conte & Roberto Oliveira, 2024. "Comparative Analysis between Intelligent Machine Committees and Hybrid Deep Learning with Genetic Algorithms in Energy Sector Forecasting: A Case Study on Electricity Price and Wind Speed in the Brazi," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-31, February.
    11. Geovanny Marulanda & Antonio Bello & Jenny Cifuentes & Javier Reneses, 2020. "Wind Power Long-Term Scenario Generation Considering Spatial-Temporal Dependencies in Coupled Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-19, July.

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