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Assessment of Simulated Solar Irradiance on Days of High Intermittency Using WRF-Solar

Author

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  • Abhnil Amtesh Prasad

    (School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • Merlinde Kay

    (School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

Abstract

Improvements in the short-term predictability of irradiance in numerical weather prediction models can assist grid operators in managing intermittent solar-generated electricity. In this study, the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model when simulating different components of solar irradiance was tested under days of high intermittency at Mildura, a site located on the border of New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. Initially, four intermittent and clear case days were chosen, later extending to a full year study in 2005. A specific configuration and augmentation of the WRF model (version 3.6.1) designed for solar energy applications (WRF-Solar) with an optimum physics ensemble derived from literature over Australia was used to simulate solar irradiance with four nested domains nudged to ERA-Interim boundary conditions at grid resolutions (45, 15, 5, and 1.7 km) centred over Mildura. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) station dataset available at minute timescales and hourly derived satellite irradiance products were used to validate the simulated products. Results showed that on days of high intermittency, simulated solar irradiance at finer resolution was affected by errors in simulated humidity and winds (speed and direction) affecting clouds and circulation, but the latter improves at coarser resolutions; this is most likely from reduced displacement errors in clouds.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhnil Amtesh Prasad & Merlinde Kay, 2020. "Assessment of Simulated Solar Irradiance on Days of High Intermittency Using WRF-Solar," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:2:p:385-:d:308180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abhnil Amtesh Prasad & Merlinde Kay, 2021. "Prediction of Solar Power Using Near-Real Time Satellite Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Caitlin M. Berry & William Kleiber & Bri‐Mathias Hodge, 2023. "Subordinated Gaussian processes for solar irradiance," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), September.
    3. Maldonado-Salguero, Patricia & Bueso-Sánchez, María Carmen & Molina-García, Ángel & Sánchez-Lozano, Juan Miguel, 2022. "Spatio-temporal dynamic clustering modeling for solar irradiance resource assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 344-359.
    4. Prasad, Abhnil Amtesh & Yang, Yuqing & Kay, Merlinde & Menictas, Chris & Bremner, Stephen, 2021. "Synergy of solar photovoltaics-wind-battery systems in Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Dimitris Drikakis & Talib Dbouk, 2022. "The Role of Computational Science in Wind and Solar Energy: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Wen-Chang Tsai & Chia-Sheng Tu & Chih-Ming Hong & Whei-Min Lin, 2023. "A Review of State-of-the-Art and Short-Term Forecasting Models for Solar PV Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-30, July.
    7. Prasad, Abhnil Amtesh & Nishant, Nidhi & Kay, Merlinde, 2022. "Dust cycle and soiling issues affecting solar energy reductions in Australia using multiple datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    8. Cheng, Xinghong & Ye, Dong & Shen, Yanbo & Li, Deping & Feng, Jinming, 2022. "Studies on the improvement of modelled solar radiation and the attenuation effect of aerosol using the WRF-Solar model with satellite-based AOD data over north China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 358-365.

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