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Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Naïve Bayes Classifier Based on Publicly Available Weather Forecasting Variables

Author

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  • Youngsung Kwon

    (Department of Mechanical and Control Engineering, Handong Global University, Pohang 37554, Korea)

  • Alexis Kwasinski

    (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Pittsburg, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA)

  • Andres Kwasinski

    (Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY 14623, USA)

Abstract

This paper develops an approach for two-day-ahead global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecast using the naïve Bayes classifier (NB). Based on publicly available weather forecasting information about temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and sky coverage, they are used as a training set in NB classification with hourly resolution. To reduce having two times with the same GHI affecting the classification in the proposed model, two characteristics of the GHI under different weather conditions are considered: The daylight variation and diurnal cycle. More importantly, NB’s independence assumption-based on simple Bayes’ theorem makes the process speed faster and less constrained than other classification algorithms. The forecast performance is verified with several error criteria from established analytical practices using relevant statistics. Moreover, commonly used forecasting error criteria are discussed. This NB model shows improved results regarding error criteria and a good agreement for a clear day that satisfies the guideline for the evaluation of two-days-ahead forecast, when compared with other recent techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Youngsung Kwon & Alexis Kwasinski & Andres Kwasinski, 2019. "Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Naïve Bayes Classifier Based on Publicly Available Weather Forecasting Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:8:p:1529-:d:225207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Monjoly, Stéphanie & André, Maïna & Calif, Rudy & Soubdhan, Ted, 2017. "Hourly forecasting of global solar radiation based on multiscale decomposition methods: A hybrid approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 288-298.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aleksander Radovan & Viktor Šunde & Danijel Kučak & Željko Ban, 2021. "Solar Irradiance Forecast Based on Cloud Movement Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-25, June.
    3. Giorgio Guariso & Giuseppe Nunnari & Matteo Sangiorgio, 2020. "Multi-Step Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Domain Adaptation of Deep Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Marzouq, Manal & El Fadili, Hakim & Zenkouar, Khalid & Lakhliai, Zakia & Amouzg, Mohammed, 2020. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting via a novel evolutionary multi-model framework and performance assessment for sites with no solar irradiance data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 214-231.
    5. Yuan-Kang Wu & Cheng-Liang Huang & Quoc-Thang Phan & Yuan-Yao Li, 2022. "Completed Review of Various Solar Power Forecasting Techniques Considering Different Viewpoints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Varaha Satra Bharath Kurukuru & Ahteshamul Haque & Mohammed Ali Khan & Subham Sahoo & Azra Malik & Frede Blaabjerg, 2021. "A Review on Artificial Intelligence Applications for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-35, August.
    7. Nailya Maitanova & Jan-Simon Telle & Benedikt Hanke & Matthias Grottke & Thomas Schmidt & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Low-Cost Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Publicly Available Weather Reports," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, February.
    8. Stephen Oladipo & Yanxia Sun & Abraham Amole, 2022. "Performance Evaluation of the Impact of Clustering Methods and Parameters on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models for Electricity Consumption Prediction during COVID-19," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-20, October.

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