IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i14p2833-d250838.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-Term Forecasting of Wake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms

Author

Listed:
  • Arslan Salim Dar

    (ForWind-Center for Wind Energy Research, Department of Physics, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
    Wind Engineering and Renewable Energy Laboratory (WIRE), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland)

  • Lüder von Bremen

    (ForWind-Center for Wind Energy Research, Department of Physics, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
    Department of Energy Systems Analysis, DLR-Institute of Networked Energy Systems e.V., 26129 Oldenburg, Germany)

Abstract

The increasing share of offshore wind energy traded at the spot market requires short term wind direction forecasts to determine wake losses and increased power fluctuations due to multiple wakes in certain wind directions. The information on potential power fluctuations can be used to issue early warnings to grid operators. The current work focuses on analyzing wind speed and power fluctuation time series for a German offshore wind farm. By associating these fluctuations with wind directions, it is observed that the turbines in double or multiple wake situations yield higher fluctuations in wind speed and power compared to the turbines in free flow. The wind direction forecasts of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model are compared with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data observations of the turbine yaw. The cumulative probability distribution of the difference in forecasted and observed wind directions shows that for a tolerance of +/−10 ? , 71% of the observations are correctly forecasted for a lead time of 1 day, which drops to 54% for a lead time of 3 days. The circular continuous rank probability score of the observed wind directions doubles over the lead time of 72 h.

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Salim Dar & Lüder von Bremen, 2019. "Short-Term Forecasting of Wake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2833-:d:250838
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/14/2833/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/14/2833/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolas Kirchner-Bossi & Fernando Porté-Agel, 2018. "Realistic Wind Farm Layout Optimization through Genetic Algorithms Using a Gaussian Wake Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, November.
    2. Alessandrini, S. & Sperati, S. & Pinson, P., 2013. "A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 271-280.
    3. Pinson, P. & Nielsen, H.Aa. & Madsen, H. & Kariniotakis, G., 2009. "Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(7-8), pages 1326-1334, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yiqi Chu & Chengcai Li & Yefang Wang & Jing Li & Jian Li, 2016. "A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
    3. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Yanling & Xiao, Xia & Wang, Jianzhou & Chi, Dezhong & Guo, Zhenhai, 2017. "Multi-step wind speed and power forecasts based on a WRF simulation and an optimized association method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 183-202.
    4. Cheng, William Y.Y. & Liu, Yubao & Bourgeois, Alfred J. & Wu, Yonghui & Haupt, Sue Ellen, 2017. "Short-term wind forecast of a data assimilation/weather forecasting system with wind turbine anemometer measurement assimilation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 340-351.
    5. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Xiao, Liqun, 2017. "A hybrid approach based on the Gaussian process with t-observation model for short-term wind speed forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 670-685.
    6. Cao, Lichao & Ge, Mingwei & Gao, Xiaoxia & Du, Bowen & Li, Baoliang & Huang, Zhi & Liu, Yongqian, 2022. "Wind farm layout optimization to minimize the wake induced turbulence effect on wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    7. Alessandrini, S. & Sperati, S. & Pinson, P., 2013. "A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 271-280.
    8. Hong, Ying-Yi & Chang, Huei-Lin & Chiu, Ching-Sheng, 2010. "Hour-ahead wind power and speed forecasting using simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm and neural network with fuzzy inputs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3870-3876.
    9. Li, Bo & Li, Xu & Su, Qingyu, 2022. "A system and game strategy for the isolated island electric-gas deeply coupled energy network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    10. Bai, Linquan & Li, Fangxing & Cui, Hantao & Jiang, Tao & Sun, Hongbin & Zhu, Jinxiang, 2016. "Interval optimization based operating strategy for gas-electricity integrated energy systems considering demand response and wind uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 270-279.
    11. Mohandes, M. & Rehman, S. & Rahman, S.M., 2011. "Estimation of wind speed profile using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 4024-4032.
    12. Dou, Bingzheng & Qu, Timing & Lei, Liping & Zeng, Pan, 2020. "Optimization of wind turbine yaw angles in a wind farm using a three-dimensional yawed wake model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    13. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    14. Nicolas Kirchner-Bossi & Fernando Porté-Agel, 2021. "Wind Farm Area Shape Optimization Using Newly Developed Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    15. Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    16. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    17. Song, Jeonghwan & Kim, Taewan & You, Donghyun, 2023. "Particle swarm optimization of a wind farm layout with active control of turbine yaws," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 738-747.
    18. Gensler, André & Sick, Bernhard & Vogt, Stephan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 352-379.
    19. Bessa, Ricardo J. & Miranda, V. & Botterud, A. & Zhou, Z. & Wang, J., 2012. "Time-adaptive quantile-copula for wind power probabilistic forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-39.
    20. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Nissen, J.N., 2015. "A novel application of an analog ensemble for short-term wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 768-781.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2833-:d:250838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.