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Winds of Change: How Up-To-Date Forecasting Methods Could Help Change Brazilian Wind Energy Policy and Save Billions of US$

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando G. Bernardes

    (Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering—Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    Faculty of Engineering, Environment and Computing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Douglas A. G. Vieira

    (PPMMC-CEFETMG Av. Amazonas 7675, 30510-000 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Vasile Palade

    (Faculty of Engineering, Environment and Computing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Rodney R. Saldanha

    (Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering—Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    PPGEE-UFMG Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

This paper proposes a revaluation of the Brazilian wind energy policy framework and the energy auction requirements. The proposed model deals with the four major issues associated with the wind policy framework that are: long-term wind speed sampling, wind speed forecasting reliability, energy commercialization, and the wind farm profitability. Brazilian wind policy, cross-checked against other countries policies, showed to be too restrictive and outdated. This paper proposes its renewal, through the adoption of international standards by Brazilian policy-makers, reducing the wind time sampling necessary to implement wind farms. To support such a policy change, a new wind forecasting method is designed. The method is based on fuzzy time series shaped with a statistical significance approach. It can be used to forecast wind behavior, by drawing the most-likely wind energy generation intervals given a confidence degree. The proposed method is useful to evaluate a wind farm profitability and design the biding strategy in auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando G. Bernardes & Douglas A. G. Vieira & Vasile Palade & Rodney R. Saldanha, 2018. "Winds of Change: How Up-To-Date Forecasting Methods Could Help Change Brazilian Wind Energy Policy and Save Billions of US$," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:2952-:d:179012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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