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SVR-Based Model to Forecast PV Power Generation under Different Weather Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Utpal Kumar Das

    (Department of Computer System and Technology, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

  • Kok Soon Tey

    (Department of Computer System and Technology, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

  • Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian

    (School of Engineering, Deakin University, Melbourne 3216, Australia)

  • Mohd Yamani Idna Idris

    (Department of Computer System and Technology, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

  • Saad Mekhilef

    (Power Electronics and Renewable Energy Research Laboratory (PEARL), Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

  • Ben Horan

    (School of Engineering, Deakin University, Melbourne 3216, Australia)

  • Alex Stojcevski

    (School of Software and Electrical Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria 3122, Australia)

Abstract

Inaccurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is a great concern in the planning and operation of stable and reliable electric grid systems as well as in promoting large-scale PV deployment. The paper proposes a generalized PV power forecasting model based on support vector regression, historical PV power output, and corresponding meteorological data. Weather conditions are broadly classified into two categories, namely, normal condition (clear sky) and abnormal condition (rainy or cloudy day). A generalized day-ahead forecasting model is developed to forecast PV power generation at any weather condition in a particular region. The proposed model is applied and experimentally validated by three different types of PV stations in the same location at different weather conditions. Furthermore, a conventional artificial neural network (ANN)-based forecasting model is utilized, using the same experimental data-sets of the proposed model. The analytical results showed that the proposed model achieved better forecasting accuracy with less computational complexity when compared with other models, including the conventional ANN model. The proposed model is also effective and practical in forecasting existing grid-connected PV power generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Utpal Kumar Das & Kok Soon Tey & Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Mohd Yamani Idna Idris & Saad Mekhilef & Ben Horan & Alex Stojcevski, 2017. "SVR-Based Model to Forecast PV Power Generation under Different Weather Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:7:p:876-:d:103113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    2. Leidy Gutiérrez & Julian Patiño & Eduardo Duque-Grisales, 2021. "A Comparison of the Performance of Supervised Learning Algorithms for Solar Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    3. Das, Utpal Kumar & Shrivastava, Prashant & Tey, Kok Soon & Bin Idris, Mohd Yamani Idna & Mekhilef, Saad & Jamei, Elmira & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Stojcevski, Alex, 2020. "Advancement of lithium-ion battery cells voltage equalization techniques: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    5. Korkmaz, Deniz, 2021. "SolarNet: A hybrid reliable model based on convolutional neural network and variational mode decomposition for hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    6. Javier Huertas Tato & Miguel Centeno Brito, 2018. "Using Smart Persistence and Random Forests to Predict Photovoltaic Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Sameer Al-Dahidi & Osama Ayadi & Jehad Adeeb & Mohammad Alrbai & Bashar R. Qawasmeh, 2018. "Extreme Learning Machines for Solar Photovoltaic Power Predictions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    10. Zheng, Lingwei & Liu, Zhaokun & Shen, Junnan & Wu, Chenxi, 2018. "Very short-term maximum Lyapunov exponent forecasting tool for distributed photovoltaic output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1128-1139.
    11. Martina Radicioni & Valentina Lucaferri & Francesco De Lia & Antonino Laudani & Roberto Lo Presti & Gabriele Maria Lozito & Francesco Riganti Fulginei & Riccardo Schioppo & Mario Tucci, 2021. "Power Forecasting of a Photovoltaic Plant Located in ENEA Casaccia Research Center," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    12. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    13. Takuji Matsumoto & Yuji Yamada, 2021. "Comprehensive and Comparative Analysis of GAM-Based PV Power Forecasting Models Using Multidimensional Tensor Product Splines against Machine Learning Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-22, November.
    14. Yuan-Kang Wu & Cheng-Liang Huang & Quoc-Thang Phan & Yuan-Yao Li, 2022. "Completed Review of Various Solar Power Forecasting Techniques Considering Different Viewpoints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, May.
    15. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    16. Nailya Maitanova & Jan-Simon Telle & Benedikt Hanke & Matthias Grottke & Thomas Schmidt & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Low-Cost Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Publicly Available Weather Reports," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, February.
    17. Mohamad Kharseh & Holger Wallbaum, 2018. "How Adding a Battery to a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System Can Increase its Economic Performance: A Comparison of Different Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.
    18. Kihan Kim & Jin Hur, 2019. "Weighting Factor Selection of the Ensemble Model for Improving Forecast Accuracy of Photovoltaic Generating Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-13, August.
    19. Dong-Dong Yuan & Ming Li & Heng-Yi Li & Cheng-Jian Lin & Bing-Xiang Ji, 2022. "Wind Power Prediction Method: Support Vector Regression Optimized by Improved Jellyfish Search Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, September.
    20. Zhou, Hai & Yang, Fan & Wu, Ji & Hu, Siyu & Ma, Wenwen & Ju, Rongrong, 2024. "Comprehensive evaluation methods for photovoltaic output anomalies based on weather classification," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    21. Thi Ngoc Nguyen & Felix Musgens, 2021. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Papers 2111.02092, arXiv.org.
    22. Hyung Keun Ahn & Neungsoo Park, 2021. "Deep RNN-Based Photovoltaic Power Short-Term Forecast Using Power IoT Sensors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    23. Nguyen Gia Minh Thao & Kenko Uchida, 2018. "An Improved Interval Fuzzy Modeling Method: Applications to the Estimation of Photovoltaic/Wind/Battery Power in Renewable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, February.
    24. Yue Chen & Zhizhong Guo & Abebe Tilahun Tadie & Hongbo Li & Guizhong Wang & Yingwei Hou, 2019. "Tie-Line Reserve Power Probability Margin for Day-Ahead Dispatching in Power Systems with High Proportion Renewable Power Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    25. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Bouchouicha, Kada & Nwokolo, Samuel Chukwujindu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term exogenous forecasting of photovoltaic power production using genetically optimized non-linear auto-regressive recurrent neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 191-209.

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