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Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment

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  • C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero

    (Department of Statistics, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), 01080 Mexico City, Mexico
    CREATES, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark)

  • J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés

    (CREATES, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
    Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, 9210 Aalborg ∅st, Denmark)

Abstract

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have a permanent effect on growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of timely counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2020. "Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p:37-:d:414685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valentina Rivera & Francisca Castro, 2021. "Between Social Protests and a Global Pandemic: Working Transitions under the Economic Effects of COVID-19," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Veronika Machova, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo, 2022. "The persistence of financial volatility after COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    5. Chi-Wei Su & Ke Dai & Sana Ullah & Zubaria Andlib, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and unemployment dynamics in European economies," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1752-1764, December.
    6. Carl Bonham & Ruben Juarez & Nicole Siegal, 2023. "Long COVID and Unemployment in Hawaii," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(13), pages 1-12, June.
    7. Irena Lacka & Blazej Supron, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Road Freight Transport Evidence from Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 319-333.
    8. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "The long-term economic effects of pandemics: toward an evolutionary approach [Epidemics and trust: the case of the Spanish flu]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 715-735.
    9. J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2021. "The political risk factors of COVID-19," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 269-287, March.
    10. António Bento Caleiro, 2021. "Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, September.
    11. C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2021. "Air Pollution and Mobility, What Carries COVID-19?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Veronika Machova, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2022. "War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Nitya Mittal & Janina Isabel Steinert & Sebastian Vollmer, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic, losses of livelihoods and uneven recovery in Pune, India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.

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