Explicating the Role of Agricultural Socialized Services on Chemical Fertilizer Use Reduction: Evidence from China Using a Double Machine Learning Model

Reducing chemical usage, particularly chemical fertilizers, is a crucial measure for advancing sustainable agricultural development. This study utilized field survey data from 894 maize farmers across three northeastern provinces of China. A double machine learning modeling framework was established to empirically examine the impact and mechanism of agricultural socialized services on chemical fertilizer use of farm households. The model addresses numerous stringent constraints of conventional causal inference models and effectively mitigates the “curse of dimensionality” issue. Current research indicates that agricultural socialized services can substantially decrease chemical fertilizer use among farmers. Further investigation reveals that these services facilitate this reduction by enhancing the mechanization level, promoting the use of organic fertilizers, and providing a labor substitution effect. The region heterogeneity test indicates that the impact of agricultural socialized services is more pronounced in Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces geographically. Regarding the heterogeneity analysis of food crop income levels, agricultural socialized services can decrease chemical fertilizer use among farmers more effectively with elevated food crop income levels. Consequently, the findings imply that the socialization of agricultural services has substantial potential to be an effective chemical fertilizer reduction strategy to support the agricultural green transition, which can be enhanced through promoting the degree of mechanization, organic fertilizer application, and labor division and specialization.