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Estimating the Bankruptcy Probability of Manufacturing Companies Considering Macroeconomic Conditions
[Оценка Вероятности Банкротства Компаний Обрабатывающей Промышленности С Учетом Макроэкономической Конъюнктуры]

Author

Listed:
  • Olga A. Bekirova

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Andrey V. Zubarev

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

The article presents the results of an econometric estimation of probabilistic default models on a sample of medium-sized manufacturing companies in Russia for the period from 2012 to 2020. Characteristics of the macroeconomic environment were included in the models. According to the results, the inclusion of the real effective exchange rate, the real key interest rate and the price of Brent oil in real terms increases the predictive power of the model. Using the estimators of the models with macroeconomic factors the effect of the moratorium on bankruptcy introduced during the coronavirus pandemic was assessed. The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga A. Bekirova & Andrey V. Zubarev, 2022. "Estimating the Bankruptcy Probability of Manufacturing Companies Considering Macroeconomic Conditions [Оценка Вероятности Банкротства Компаний Обрабатывающей Промышленности С Учетом Макроэкономичес," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-27, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r22101
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    2. Демешев Борис Борисович & Тихонова Анна Сергеевна, 2014. "Прогнозирование Банкротства Российских Компаний: Межотраслевое Сравнение," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 18(3), pages 359-386.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    4. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    5. Christian Lohmann & Thorsten Ohliger, 2019. "Using accounting‐based information on young firms to predict bankruptcy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 803-819, December.
    6. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2021. "COVID-19: stress-testing non-financial companies: a macroprudential perspective. The experience of Poland," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 283-319, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy; moratorium on bankruptcy; Russian companies; probabilistic models; logistic regression; macroeconomic factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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