IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fru/finjrn/240104p61-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Export Potential Assessment Methodology: The Case of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Author

Listed:
  • Sergei S. Sudakov

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Alexey A. Zinchenko

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

This paper proposes a universal methodology for assessing export potential of different countries. It takes into account both external and internal supply and demand factors. The methodology is based on the assessment of various trade indices, such as the Balassa index, trade complementarity index and export specialization index. In addition to analyzing the export capabilities of countries, the methodology also focuses on analyzing the countries’ presence in foreign markets (through the geographical structure of imports). The presented methodology is complemented by the estimation of output multipliers (based on Input — Output tables). The calculation of output multipliers takes into account additional induced effects resulting from the growth of household and government incomes, which are partly spent on additional consumption. Complementary analysis of trade indices and output multipliers (including induced effects) allows to identify sectors and products that will most stimulate economic growth by increasing exports. The proposed methodology has been tested on data for the Republic of Uzbekistan in terms of intensive margin of trade. The results of the analysis show that the methodology can be used as a basis for preparing export development programs for individual countries. The methodology could be improved by a deeper analysis of foreign trade barriers, domestic supply factors and extensive trade margins. However, up-to-date information on these improvement factors is not always publicly available.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergei S. Sudakov & Alexey A. Zinchenko, 2024. "Export Potential Assessment Methodology: The Case of the Republic of Uzbekistan," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 61-77, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:240104:p:61-77
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-61-77
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2024/1/statii/04_1_2024_v16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-61-77?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel Hinaunye Eita & André C. Jordaan, 2007. "South Africa’s Wood Export Potential Using a Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 200723, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Johanna d'Hernoncourt & Mateo Cordier & David Hadley, 2011. "Input-Output Multipliers – Specification sheet and supporting material, Spicosa project report," Working Papers hal-03233439, HAL.
    4. Adil Khan Miankhel & Kaliappa Kalirajan & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2014. "Australia's export potential: an exploratory analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 230-246, April.
    5. Samir Ranjan Pradhan, 2009. "India s Export Potential to the Gulf Cooperation Council: A Gravity Model Exploration," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 48-71, May-July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mikhail Y. Afanasyev & Alexander V. Kudrov, 2021. "Economic Complexity, Embedding Degree and Adjacent Diversity of the Regional Economies," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(2), pages 7-22.
    2. Edurne Magro Montero & Mari Jose Aranguren & Mikel Navarro, 2011. "Smart Specialisation Strategies: The Case of the Basque Country," Working Papers 2011R07, Orkestra - Basque Institute of Competitiveness.
    3. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    4. Lyubimov, Ivan & Gvozdeva, Margarita & Lysyuk, Maria, 2018. "Towards increased complexity in Russian regions : networks, diversification and growth," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Murat A. Yülek, 2017. "On the Middle Income Trap, the Industrialization Process and Appropriate Industrial Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 325-348, September.
    6. Jagrič, Timotej & Brown, Christine & Boyce, Tammy & Jagrič, Vita, 2021. "The impact of the health-care sector on national economies in selected European countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 90-97.
    7. Nomaler, Önder & Verspagen, Bart, 2022. "Some new views on product space and related diversification," MERIT Working Papers 2022-011, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Sami Atallah & Ilina Srour, 2014. "The Emergence of Highly Sophisticated Lebanese Exports in the Absence of an Industrial Policy," Working Papers 876, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2014.
    9. Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Jaramillo, Fidel & Agosin, Manuel R. & Sánchez, Gabriel & Butler, Inés & Blyde, Juan S. & Pinheiro, Armando Castelar & Daude, Christian & Cueva Armijos, Simón & Albornoz, Vi, 2009. "Growing Pains: Binding Constraints to Productive Investment in Latin America," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 305, December.
    10. Idsardi, E.F. & Schalkwyk, H.D. & Viviers, W., 2015. "The Agricultural Product Space: Prospects for South Africa," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211752, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Neffke, Frank M.H., 2019. "The workforce of pioneer plants," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 628-648.
    12. Delgado, Mercedes & Porter, Michael E. & Stern, Scott, 2014. "Clusters, convergence, and economic performance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(10), pages 1785-1799.
    13. Marcela Meléndez Arjona & Guillermo Perry, 2009. "Industrial policies in Colombia," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 9138, Fedesarrollo.
    14. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2011. "Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 590-605, May.
    15. Karolien De Bruyne & Wouter Bam & Denis Engelbrecht, 2023. "South Africa's titanium industrial policy: A product space perspective," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 3-27, March.
    16. Raúl Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2014. "New directions of trade for the agri-food industry: a disaggregated approach for different income countries, 1963–2000," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.
    17. World Bank, 2009. "Kenya - Poverty and Inequality Assessment : Executive Summary and Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 3081, The World Bank Group.
    18. Jaan Masso & Kärt Rõigas & Priit Vahter, 2015. "Foreign market experience, learning by hiring and firm export performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 659-686, November.
    19. Usui, Norio, 2011. "Transforming the Philippine Economy: "Walking on Two Legs"," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 252, Asian Development Bank.
    20. Nomaler, Önder & Verspagen, Bart, 2024. "Related or unrelated diversification: What is smart specialization?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 503-515.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade indices; input-output multipliers; Input-Output tables; export potential;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:240104:p:61-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gennady Ageev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frigvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.