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Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?

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  • Eric Van Wincoop
  • Kei-Mu Yi

Abstract

The Asia crisis was originally expected to affect the U.S. economy adversely, mainly through reduced exports to, and increased imports from, the crisis countries. However, U.S. GDP growth in 1998, at 4.3 percent, was surprisingly strong. This article examines the effect of the crisis on the U.S. economy, using a quantitative approach that focuses on capital outflows from Asia. It finds that banks were the primary mechanism by which the funds left Asia, and that these funds did not flow directly to the United States. Rather, they went first to offshore banking centers and then to European banks. In addition, the article uses an equilibrium framework to calculate the Asian capital outflows' impact on U.S. GDP. It finds that the overall impact was positive but small.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Van Wincoop & Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 51-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2000:i:sep:p:51-70:n:v.6no.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2019. "Output Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy: The Role of International Trade and Financial Linkages," Working Papers 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2004. "Currency Market Contagion In The Asia‐Pacific Region," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 379-395, December.
    6. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M., 2020. "The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 563-581.
    7. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2011. "Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 62-73, February.
    8. Phillip Anthony O'Hara, 2003. "Deep Recession and Financial Instability or a New Long Wave of Economic Growth for U.S. Capitalism? A Regulation School Approach," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 18-43, March.
    9. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: International Trade and the Foreign Effects of US Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 300-325, March.
    10. Soofi, Abdol S. & Moussavi, Saadat, 2004. "Transmissions of real economic shocks across the Pacific Rim economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 959-972, December.
    11. Hasan Comert & Mehmet Selman Colak, 2014. "Can Financial Stability be Maintained in Developing Countries after the Global Crisis: The Role of External Financial Shocks?," ERC Working Papers 1411, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2015.
    12. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2021. "The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: Output Spillovers through Trade and Financial Linkages," Working Papers 21-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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