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What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?

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  • Spilimbergo, Antonio
  • Duttagupta, Rupa

Abstract

After the large exchange rate depreciations following the 1997 East Asian crisis, export volumes from East Asian countries responded with a notable lag. Two main explanations for this lag have been proposed: that contraction in domestic credit affected supply of exports; and that ?competitive depreciation? by other countries neutralized the effects on demand for exports. This Paper considers the plausibility of these two mechanisms using a new monthly database on exports of selected industries. The results indicate that ?competitive depreciation? played an important role in the propagation of the East Asian crisis through the trade channel, even at a monthly frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Spilimbergo, Antonio & Duttagupta, Rupa, 2003. "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4158
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S Hiremath, 2020. "Do external commercial borrowings and financial development affect exports?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1796269-179, January.
    3. Jörg Mayer & Arunas Butkevicius & Ali Kadri & Juan Pizarro, 2004. "Dynamic products in world exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 762-795, September.
    4. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Jung, Naeun & Moch, Stephen & Mody, Ashoka, 2014. "The Eurozone Crisis: Phoenix Miracle or Lost Decade?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 288-308.
    6. n.a.m, Naseem & abu hassan shaari mohd, Nor & tamat, Sarmidi & noor aini, khalifah, 2013. "Exports and Exchange Rate Movements: The Role of Credit Market Imperfections," MPRA Paper 52395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
    8. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2009. "Financial Market Imperfections and the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 103-120, February.
    9. Anita Doraisami, 2004. "Trade Causes of the Asian Crisis: The Malaysian Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 715-725, May.
    10. Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2008. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-48.
    11. Rungrudee Suetorsak, 2006. "Banking crisis in east asia: A micro/macro perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 219-248, May.
    12. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2006. "Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements," Post-Print halshs-00118834, HAL.
    13. Anita Giselle Doraisami, 2007. "Financial crisis in Malaysia: did FDI flows contribute to vulnerability?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 949-962.
    14. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
    15. Dionisius Narjoko & Hal Hill, 2007. "Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 343-368, December.
    16. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 13, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Takashi Isogai & Hirofumi Morishita & Rasmus Ruffer, 2002. "Analysis of Intra- and Inter-regional Trade in East Asia:Comparative Advantage Structures and Dynamic Interdependency in Trade Flows," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series International Department,, Bank of Japan.
    18. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Makarand Parulkar, 2008. "Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a Financially Vulnerable Emerging Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 21-33, May.
    19. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.
    20. Dionisius A. Narjoko & Raymond Atje, 2007. "The Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda with Special Reference to the Asia Pacific Region: A Brief Survey," Working Papers 3207, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    21. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2002/200, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J. & Levine, David I., 2008. "Financial constraints on investment in an emerging market crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 568-591, April.
    23. Anita Daraisami, 2004. "Export growth slowdown and currency crisis: the Malaysian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(17), pages 1947-1957.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-integration; Competitive depreciation; Export demand and supply; East asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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