IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fednci/y2004idecnv.10no.13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will the U.S. productivity resurgence continue?

Author

Listed:
  • Mun S. Ho
  • Dale W. Jorgenson
  • Kevin J. Stiroh

Abstract

U.S. productivity growth has accelerated in recent years, despite a series of negative economic shocks. An analysis of the sources of this growth over the 1995-2003 period suggests that the production and use of information technology account for a large share of the gains. The authors project that during the next decade, private sector productivity growth will continue at a rate of 2.6 percent per year, a significant increase from their 2002 projection of 2.2 percent growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2004. "Will the U.S. productivity resurgence continue?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2004:i:dec:n:v.10no.13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci10-13.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci10-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Neil Baily, 2002. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 3-22, Spring.
    2. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2003. "Lessons from the US growth resurgence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 453-470, July.
    3. James A. Kahn & Kevin Stiroh, 2002. "Productivity Growth: A New Era?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 237-242, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lynch, Lisa M., 2007. "The Adoption and Diffusion of Organizational Innovation: Evidence for the U.S. Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 2819, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Jonathan Harris, "undated". "Ecological Macroeconomics: Consumption, Investment, and Climate Change," GDAE Working Papers 08-02, GDAE, Tufts University.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Hélène Baudchon & Jérôme Creel & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Eloi Laurent & Jacques Le Cacheux & Patrick Musso & Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Gilles , 2005. "Potential Growth in the EU : Prospects from Technical Progress and Eastern Enlargment," Working Papers hal-03458887, HAL.
    5. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    6. Graeme Davis & Jyoti Rahman, 2006. "Perspectives on Australia's productivity prospects," Treasury Working Papers 2006-04, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Sep 2006.
    7. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2005. "Information technology and the Japanese economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 460-481, December.
    8. Georges Daw, 2022. "Determinants of Wealth Disparities in the EU: A Multi-scale Development Accounting Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 211-254, June.
    9. Hätönen, Jussi, 2011. "The economic impact of fixed and mobile high-speed networks," EIB Papers 7/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    10. Federici, Daniela & Saltari, Enrico, 2018. "Elasticity Of Substitution And Technical Progress: Is There A Misspecification Problem?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 101-121, January.
    11. Strauss, Hubert & Samkharadze, Besik, 2011. "ICT capital and productivity growth," EIB Papers 6/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    12. Fran Stewart & Kathryn Kelley, 2020. "Connecting Hands and Heads: Retooling Engineering Technology for the “Smart†Manufacturing Workplace," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 34(1), pages 31-45, February.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Andreas Kuhlmann, 2007. "Essays on network industries : privatization, regulation, and productivity measurement," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 26.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Antonelli, Cristiano & Quatraro, Francesco, 2007. "Directed Technological Change and Total Factor Productivity. Effects and Determinants in a Sample of OECD Countries, 1971 – 2001," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 200711, University of Turin.
    18. Brynjolfsson, Erik, 2011. "ICT, innovation and the e-economy," EIB Papers 8/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    19. Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Steven Yamarik, 2011. "Human capital and state-level economic growth: what is the contribution of schooling?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 195-211, August.
    21. Someshwar Rao & Andrew Sharpe & Jeremy Smith, 2005. "An Analysis of the Labour Productivity Growth Slowdown in Canada since 2000," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 10, pages 3-23, Spring.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    2. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "What are the drivers of TFP in the Aging Economy? Aging labor and ICT capital," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 201-211.
    3. Francesco Venturini, 2009. "The long-run impact of ICT," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 497-515, December.
    4. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "The dynamics of information and communications technologies infrastructure, economic growth, and financial development: Evidence from Asian countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 135-149.
    5. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada.
    7. JORGENSON Dale W. & MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki, 2004. "Potential Growth Of The Japanese And U.S. Economies In The Information Age," ESRI Discussion paper series 088, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Biswajit Patra & Narayan Sethi, 2024. "Does digital payment induce economic growth in emerging economies? The mediating role of institutional quality, consumption expenditure, and bank credit," Information Technology for Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 57-75, January.
    9. Lach, Saul & Trajtenberg, Manuel & Shiff, Gil, 2008. "Together but Apart: ICT and Productivity Growth in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 6732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Matthes, Jürgen, 2002. "New Economy im Schatten der amerikanischen Konjunkturschwäche," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(1), pages 16-23.
    11. Raquel Ortega‐Argilés & Mariacristina Piva & Marco Vivarelli, 2014. "The transatlantic productivity gap: Is R&D the main culprit?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 1342-1371, November.
    12. Francesco Venturini, 2005. "How Much Does IT Consumption Matter for Growth? Evidence from National Accounts," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(1), pages 57-110, January-F.
    13. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
    14. Theo Eicher & Oliver Roehn, 2007. "Sources of the German Productivity Demise – Tracing the Effects of Industry-Level ICT Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series 1896, CESifo.
    15. Atanas Leonidov, 2003. "“The New Economy”," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-33.
    16. Venturini Francesco, 2007. "ICT and Productivity Resurgence: A Growth Model for the Information Age," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, August.
    17. Robert L. Bray & Haim Mendelson, 2012. "Information Transmission and the Bullwhip Effect: An Empirical Investigation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 860-875, May.
    18. Jihad Dagher, 2018. "Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/008, International Monetary Fund.
    19. van Ark, Bart & Smits, Jan Pieter, 2005. "Technology Regimes and Productivity Growth in Europe and the United States: A Comparative and Historical Perspective," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt1td1h23k, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    20. Lee, Jong-Wha & Song, Eunbi & Kwak, Do Won, 2020. "Aging labor, ICT capital, and productivity in Japan and Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information technology; Productivity;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2004:i:dec:n:v.10no.13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.