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The output gap: a “potentially” unreliable measure of economic health?

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The output gap is one (of many) economic indicators used by economists to measure the strength of the economy. What exactly is the output gap, and how accurately does it predict the state of the economy? Read this month's Page One Economics Newsletter, \\"The Output Gap: A ?Potentially? Unreliable Measure of Economic Health,\\" for an explanation of the output gap and answers to these questions.

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  • Elise Marifian & Scott A. Wolla, 2012. "The output gap: a “potentially” unreliable measure of economic health?," Page One Economics Newsletter, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue nov, pages 1-3, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlpo:y:2012:i:nov
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas A. Lubik, 2010. "Is the output gap a faulty gauge for monetary policy?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jan.
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    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2011. "Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021," Reports 21999, Congressional Budget Office.
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    7. William T. Gavin, 2012. "What is potential GDP and why does it matter?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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    9. Congressional Budget Office, 2011. "Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021," Reports 21999, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. Kevin L. Kliesen, 1999. "The NAIRU: tailor-made for the Fed?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct.
    11. Roc Armenter, 2011. "Output gaps: uses and limitation," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 1-8.
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