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Agriculture’s boom-bust cycles: is this time different?

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  • Michael D. Boehlje
  • Brent A. Gloy
  • Jason Henderson

Abstract

Agriculture in the United States is notorious for its cycles of boom and bust. Golden eras of a booming farm economy often fade quickly as economic and financial market conditions change. Today, U.S. agriculture is in the midst of another farm boom. Henderson, Gloy and Boehlje examine the foundation of the boom-bust cycle and find that U.S. farm incomes are swelling because of record high exports and strong demand for biofuels. Simultaneously, with historically low interest rates, farmland values have reached record highs. Although current conditions mirror the past, farmers have hesitated to take on debt in financing new investments, raising the possibility that this time could be different.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Boehlje & Brent A. Gloy & Jason Henderson, 2011. "Agriculture’s boom-bust cycles: is this time different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q IV), pages 81-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2011:i:qiv:p:81-103:n:v.96no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gloy, Brent A. & Boehlje, Michael & Dobbins, Craig L. & Hurt, Christopher & Baker, Timothy G., 2011. "Are Economic Fundamentals Driving Farmland Values?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-6.
    2. Brian C. Briggeman & Jason Henderson, 2011. "What are the risks in today’s farmland market?," Main Street Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue 1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holderieath, Jason, 2014. "Impact of Increased Crop Insurance Enrollment on Cropping of Environmentally Sensitive Land," 2014 AAEA: Crop Insurance and the 2014 Farm Bill Symposium: Implementing Change in U.S. Agricultural Policy, October 8-9, 2014, Louisville, KY 184269, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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