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Term Structure Forecasts of Inflation

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  • Robertson, Donald

Abstract

This paper investigates the information in the term structure of interest rates about future inflation using U.K. data. The author finds that at horizons of up to four years the term structure has predictive value for inflation outcomes. The term structure could, thus, provide a guide to the setting of monetary policy. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Robertson, Donald, 1992. "Term Structure Forecasts of Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1083-1093, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:102:y:1992:i:414:p:1083-93
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q III), pages 5-42.
    3. Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
    4. Thomas Mayer, 1998. "Indexed Bonds And Heterogeneous Agents," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 77-84, January.
    5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2558, Banco de la Republica.
    6. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    7. Casey B. Mulligan, 1997. "Pecuniary Incentives to Work in the U.S. during World War II," NBER Working Papers 6326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Casey B. Mulligan, 1998. "Pecuniary Incentives to Work in the United States during World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1033-1077, October.
    9. Robertson, D. & Symons, J., 1993. "Five weeks in the life of the pound: interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20983, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Greg Tkacz, 2000. "Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes," Staff Working Papers 00-7, Bank of Canada.

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