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Can measures of the consumer debt burden reliably predict an economic slowdown?

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  • C. Alan Garner

Abstract

Some analysts and business executives are becoming concerned that recent increases in the consumer debt burden may foreshadow an economic slowdown. Higher debt increases the risk that a household may experience financial distress in the event of an adverse economic shock, such as the loss of a job or large uninsured medical expenses. As the risk of financial distress rises, households may become less willing to spend on consumer goods, particularly big ticket items such as automobiles and home computers, which in turn would hurt economic growth.> Different measures of the consumer debt burden are currently giving conflicting signals about the seriousness of the problem. It is not clear whether these measures have been useful indicators of consumer spending and economic growth in the past. Moreover, a measure of the debt burden that was useful in the past might be unreliable today if recent changes in the financial system, such as greater use of credit cards, are distorting the relationship between consumer debt and real economic variables.> Garner examines whether various measures of the consumer debt burden can reliably predict a slowdown in economic growth. He concludes that analysts should continue to monitor various measures of the consumer debt burden, but these measures are not highly reliable in predicting future economic slowdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Alan Garner, 1996. "Can measures of the consumer debt burden reliably predict an economic slowdown?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q IV), pages 63-76.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1996:i:qiv:p:63-76:n:v.81no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kearl, J R & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1977. "Illiquidity, the Demand for Residential Housing, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1571-1586, December.
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    3. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1976. "Illiquidity, Consumer Durable Expenditure, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 642-654, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alena Bicakova & Zuzana Prelcova & Renata Pasalicova, 2010. "Who Borrows and Who May Not Repay?," Working Papers 2010/10, Czech National Bank.
    2. Jin Zhang & David Bessler & David Leatham, 2006. "Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 401-407.
    3. Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Yun Kim, 2011. "A Short Empirical Note on Household Debt, Financialization, and Macroeconomic Performance," Working Papers 1107, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    5. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2001. "New York - New Jersey job expansion to moderate in 2001," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 7(Mar).
    6. Elizabeth Schmitt, 2000. "Does rising consumer debt signal future recessions?: Testing the causal relationship between consumer debt and the economy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 333-345, September.
    7. Isil Tellalbasi, 2014. "Financialization Of Household Sector In Turkey., 2000-2013," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(12), pages 1826-1839, December.
    8. Jonathan McCarthy, 1997. "Debt, delinquencies, and consumer spending," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Feb).
    9. Lucia Dunn & Tufan Ekici & Paul J. Lavrakas & Jeffery A. Stec, 2004. "An Index to Track Credit Card Debt and Predict Consumption," Working Papers 04-04, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Eric Tymoigne, 2007. "A Hard-Nosed Look at Worsening U.S. Household Finance," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 88-111.

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