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How the Pandemic Influenced Trends in Domestic Migration across U.S. Urban Areas

Author

Listed:
  • Jason Brown
  • Colton Tousey

Abstract

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, net domestic migration in the United States was generally increasing in smaller urban areas while declining in the largest urban areas; as people sought to mitigate exposure to COVID-19 and avoid stricter lockdown measures, the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. Changes in domestic migration trends may influence the longer-term growth prospects of places, but investigating recent trends in domestic migration can be challenging because data from official government sources are released with a long lag. Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey overcome this lag by using higher frequency information on address changes self-reported by consumers, and use these data to assess whether domestic migration between urban areas changed after the onset of the pandemic. They find that the rate of net domestic migration increased further in small and medium urban areas and declined further in very large urban areas. Moreover, the relationship between net domestic migration and two of its historical driving factors—population density and natural amenities—diminished only slightly during the pandemic. Their findings suggest that though the pandemic influenced net domestic migration, it has not yet drastically altered migration trends to less crowded urban areas with higher natural amenities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Brown & Colton Tousey, 2021. "How the Pandemic Influenced Trends in Domestic Migration across U.S. Urban Areas," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 106(no. 4), November.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:93452
    DOI: 10.18651/ER/v106n4BrownTousey
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arjun Ramani & Nicholas Bloom, 2021. "The Donut Effect of Covid-19 on Cities," NBER Working Papers 28876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. H. Spencer Banzhaf & Randall P. Walsh, 2008. "Do People Vote with Their Feet? An Empirical Test of Tiebout," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 843-863, June.
    3. Jack DeWaard & Janna Johnson & Stephan D. Whitaker, 2018. "Internal Migration in the United States: A Comparative Assessment of the Utility of the Consumer Credit Panel," Working Papers (Old Series) 1804, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephan D. Whitaker, 2023. "Understanding Migration Trends to Prepare for the Post-Pandemic Future," Cleveland Fed Regional Policy Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue 20230801, pages 1-32, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Urban Areas; Pandemic; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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