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U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?

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  • John A. Tatom

Abstract

This article rejects the linkages in proposals that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) target equity prices. The real federal funds rate (RFF) and stock prices (SP) are uncorrelated; causality tests show a positive effect of SP on RFF and a negative effect of SP on RFF. These results occur as part of the dynamics of a negative cointegrated relationship between SP and RFF. A theoretically expected inverse relation between SP and inflation accounts for the results. The negative effect of SP on FF is also confirmed in a Taylor Rule estimate. Higher stock prices anticipate lower, not higher, inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Tatom, 2009. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?," NFI Working Papers 2009-WP-14, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:nfi:nfiwps:2009-wp-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Bubbles; Asset Prices; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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