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Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

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Abstract

As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.

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  • Brandyn Bok & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Robert G. Valletta & Mary Yilma, 2022. "Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(24), pages 1-6, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:97742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier J Blanchard & Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space," Policy Briefs PB22-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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