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Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?

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  • Jing Cynthia Wu
  • Yinxi Xie
  • Ji Zhang

Abstract

We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies—event studies, vector autoregressions, and regional panel regressions using granular data—and establish a null result. The key economic mechanism works through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation through the usual demand channel. We illustrate this negative supply-side channel both theoretically and empirically.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Cynthia Wu & Yinxi Xie & Ji Zhang, 2024. "Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?," Staff Working Papers 24-38, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation and prices; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Business fluctuations and cycles; Central bank research;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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