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Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations

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  • J. Scott Davis
  • Adrienne Mack

Abstract

This paper develops a method for measuring the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations that does not require estimates of long-run inflation expectations. Such estimates exist for only a few developed economies, and even then only a short time series is available. By not requiring estimates of long-term inflation expectations, this method is able to measure the anchoring of inflation expectations in sixty-four different developed and developing countries. In addition, with rolling-window estimations we can measure the anchoring of expectations across time within a country, and thus we can observe how inflation expectations became unanchored in many countries during the 1970s. Then we can observe how, through means like inflation targeting and monetary unification, these expectations were re-anchored during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Scott Davis & Adrienne Mack, 2013. "Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Oct.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddst:y:2013:i:oct:n:21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Joseph Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2012. "Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1588-1629.
    5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    6. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Romero, José Vicente & Naranjo-Saldarriaga, Sara, 2024. "Weather shocks and inflation expectations in semi-structural models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).

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