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Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Alan Armen
  • Evan F. Koenig

Abstract

This note suggests that household wealth growth and a long-forward interest rate can be used to construct a simple and convenient reference standard for assessing the current stance of monetary policy. It shows that the difference between the federal funds rate and this reference interest rate is a powerful predictor of the unemployment rate and inflation, producing real-time forecasts that are competitive with consensus-based forecasts from surveys of forecasting professionals. Moreover, one can understand past FOMC policy actions as efforts to adjust the stance of policy, so measured, in response to unemployment and inflation gaps. There is little evidence of inertia in this version of the Taylor rule, in contrast to Taylor-rule specifications that assume a fixed reference real federal funds rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Armen & Evan F. Koenig, 2015. "Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddst:00002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
    2. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    3. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.
    4. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Razzak, Weshah, 2020. "The Riddle of the Natural Rate of Interest," MPRA Paper 102663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; monetary policy; real-time forecasting; inflation; Taylor rule; neutral rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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