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Implied Market Loss Given Default in the Czech Republic: Structural-Model Approach

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Abstract

This paper focuses on the key credit risk parameter – Loss Given Default (LGD). We describe its general properties and determinants with respect to seniority of debt, characteristics of debtors and macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, we illustrate how the LGD can be extracted from market observable information with help of the adjusted Mertonian structural approach. We present a derivation of the formula for the expected LGD and show its sensitivity with respect to other structural company parameters. Finally, we estimate the 5-year expected LGDs for companies listed on the Prague Stock Exchange and find that the average LGD for this analyzed sample is in the range of 20–45 %. To the authors’ knowledge, these are the first implied market estimates of LGD in the Czech Republic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Seidler & Petr Jakubík, 2009. "Implied Market Loss Given Default in the Czech Republic: Structural-Model Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(1), pages 20-40, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:59:y:2009:i:1:p:20-40
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb08/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Radovan Chalupka & Juraj Kopecsni, 2009. "Modeling Bank Loan LGD of Corporate and SME Segments: A Case Study," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(4), pages 360-382, Oktober.
    3. Diego Valderrama & Katheryn N. Russ, 2009. "A Theory of Banks, Bonds, and the Distribution of Firm Size," Working Papers 4, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    4. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb09/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Russ, Katheryn N. & Valderrama, Diego, 2012. "A theory of bank versus bond finance and intra-industry reallocation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 652-673.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb10/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. J. Baixauli & Susana Alvarez, 2012. "Implied Severity Density Estimation: An Extended Semiparametric Method to Compute Credit Value at Risk," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 115-129, August.
    8. Diego Valderrama & Katheryn N. Russ, "undated". "A Theory of Banks, Bonds, and the Distribution of Firm Size," Working Papers 915, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb09/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr0809/4 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    loss given default; credit risk; structural models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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