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An Analysis of the Potential of the European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys for Macroeconomic Forecasting

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  • Goggin, Jean

    (ESRI)

Abstract

It is widely believed that survey-based confidence indicators provide a reasonably accurate picture of economic conditions. This paper examines whether data from the business and consumer surveys conducted for the European Commission might be useful for short-term macroeconomic forecasting. First, the internal consistency of the survey data is tested, to ascertain the extent to which reported outcomes from one month correspond to expectations data from previous months. The forecasting potential is then explored by comparing the survey data to their official data equivalents. The results from this analysis are mixed and suggest that the potential of the business survey data is limited. From these surveys only four variables produced findings that merit further investigation. The results from the consumer survey were more positive, and suggest that a number of statistical relationships exist between the survey series and the official data.

Suggested Citation

  • Goggin, Jean, 2008. "An Analysis of the Potential of the European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 46-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:qecsas:2008:winter:goggin
    as

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    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/QEC2008Win_SA_Goggin.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    2. Bruno, Giancarlo & Malgarini, Marco, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," MPRA Paper 42331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nigel Pain & Martin Weale, 2001. "The Information Content of Consumer Surveys," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 178(1), pages 44-47, October.
    4. Conniffe, Denis, 1985. "Seasonality in the Business Survey," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 1985(2-July).
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    Cited by:

    1. Gagea Mariana, 2012. "Study of Industrial Conjuncture Balances in Romania, Using Logit Model with Heteroscedasticity," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 59(1), pages 337-349, July.
    2. Gagea, Mariana, 2014. "Modelling the Confidence in Industry in Romania and other European Member Countries Using the Ordered Logit Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 15-34, March.
    3. Elena Doina Dascălu & Nicu Marcu & Ştefan Pete & Maria-Lenuţa Ulici & Vadim Dumitraşcu, 2016. "Dependent Business Climate. A Network-Based Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 138-152, March.

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