IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v16y2019i2d10.1007_s10368-018-0417-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Paparas

    (Harper Adams University)

  • Christian Richter

    (German University in Cairo)

  • Ioannis Kostakis

    (Harokopio University)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the Wagner’s law validity, and whether it can explain the U.K. public spending expansion for the period 1850–2010. According to Wagner’s Law, economic development is the key determinant to public sector growth. Accordingly, the public sector grows overproportionally compared to national income when economies develop. We test this hypothesis for the UK. The data covers a period in which the U.K. economy experienced increased economic growth, government spending and met most of the assumption of Wagner’s Law (industrialisation, urbanisation, increased population). Furthermore, the long data set ensures the reliability of our results in terms of statistical and economic conclusions. We apply unit root tests, unit root tests with structural breaks, cointegration techniques and the Granger causality test. Our results indicate a presence of a long run relationship between national income and government spending, while the causality is bi-directional, thus we find support for Wagner’s and Keynesian hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Ioannis Kostakis, 2019. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 269-291, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-018-0417-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-018-0417-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-018-0417-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-018-0417-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. F. Al-Faris, 2002. "Public expenditure and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1187-1193.
    2. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
    6. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, June.
    7. Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
    8. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
    9. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-298, August.
    10. Bohl, Martin T, 1996. "Some International Evidence on Wagner's Law," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 185-200.
    11. Sunday Osaretin Iyare & Troy Lorde, 2004. "Co-integration, causality and Wagner's law: tests for selected Caribbean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 815-825.
    12. Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1988. "An empirical re-examination of Wagner's law," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 169-173.
    15. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2019. "A synthesis of empirical research on the validity of Wagner's law," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 555-583.
    16. John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2005. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 125-152, May.
    17. Wing Yuk, 2005. "Government Size and Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence for the United Kingdom, 1830-1993," Econometrics Working Papers 0501, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    18. Lin, Chi-Ang, 1995. "More Evidence on Wagner's Law for Mexico," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(2), pages 267-277.
    19. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Halicioglu Ferda, 2003. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 31-42, August.
    21. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    22. Ganti, Subrahmanyam & Kolluri, Bharat R, 1979. "Wagner's Law of Public Expenditures: Some Efficient Results for the United States," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 34(2), pages 225-233.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    24. Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1990. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 87-95, February.
    25. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2013. "How reliable are budget sustainability tests? A case study for Greece," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1/2), pages 23-43.
    26. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    27. Bagala Biswal & Urvashi Dhawan & Hooi-Yean Lee, 1999. "Testing Wagner versus Keynes using disaggregated public expenditure data for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1283-1291.
    28. Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
    29. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    30. Nomura, Masuo, 1995. "Wagner's Hypothesis and Displacement Effect in Japan, 1960-1991," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 121-135.
    31. Ying-Foon Chow & John Cotsomitis & Andy Kwan, 2002. "Multivariate cointegration and causality tests of Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1671-1677.
    32. John Thornton, 1999. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner's Law in 19th century Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 413-416.
    33. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Antonis Adamopoulos, 2004. "A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 457-464.
    34. Goffman, Irving J & Mahar, Dennis J, 1971. "The Growth of Public Expenditures in Selected Developing Nations: Six Caribbean Countries 1940-65," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 57-74.
    35. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
    36. Dimitrios Sideris, 2007. "Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 64, Bank of Greece.
    37. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    38. Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
    39. James Payne, 1997. "The tax-spend debate: the case of Canada," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 381-386.
    40. Lall, Sanjaya, 1969. "A Note on Government Expenditures in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 79(314), pages 413-417, June.
    41. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nayak, Dinesh Kumar & Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2022. "Linkage between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-nationals: A Second Generation Panel Co-integration Techniques," Working Papers 22/374, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    3. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 109054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2022. "Long swings in the growth of government expenditure: an international historical perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 227-248, September.
    5. Eman Elish & Hossam Eldien Ahmed & Mostafa E. AboElsoud, 2023. "Military spending crowding out health and education spending: which views are valid in Egypt?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 109585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ciro Bazán & Víctor Josué Álvarez-Quiroz & Yennyfer Morales Olivares, 2022. "Wagner’s Law vs. Keynesian Hypothesis: Dynamic Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 100284, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries," Working Papers 2012.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    5. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    6. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    7. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Thabane, Kanono & Lebina, Sello, 2016. "Economic Growth and Government Spending Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Lesotho," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(1), January.
    9. Dimitrios Sideris, 2007. "Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 64, Bank of Greece.
    10. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    11. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    12. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 393-406, September.
    13. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    14. V. Chandran Govindaraju & Ramesh Rao & Sajid Anwar, 2011. "Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: a re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 203-219, August.
    15. Kashif MUNIR & Wajid ALI, 2019. "Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Role of aggregate and disaggregate expenditure in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 181-200, Winter.
    16. Nayak, Dinesh Kumar & Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2022. "Linkage between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-nationals: A Second Generation Panel Co-integration Techniques," Working Papers 22/374, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    17. Selim Demez, 2021. "Validity of Wagner’s Law in EU Member Transition Economies: Panel Causality Analysis," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 199-210, July.
    18. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2012. "Wagner's Law revisited: cointegration and causality tests for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 607-616, February.
    19. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:181-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    21. Ebaid Ali & Bahari Zakaria, 2019. "The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s Law in Kuwait," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-018-0417-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.