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Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?

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  • Chiung-Ju Huang

    (Department of Public Finance, Feng Chia University)

Abstract

This paper tests Wagner¡¯s Law for China and Taiwan, using annual time series data covering the period 1979-2002. To estimate the long-run relationship between government expenditures and output, we use a robust estimation method known as the Bounds Test based on Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM) estimation (Pesaran et al. (2001)). Empirical results from the Bounds Test indicate that there exists no long-run relationship between government expenditures and output in China and Taiwan. Furthermore, Toda and Yamamoto¡¯s (1995) Granger non-causality test results also show that Wagner¡¯s Law does not hold for China and Taiwan over this same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiung-Ju Huang, 2006. "Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 139-148, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:31:y:2006:i:2:p:139-148
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    Cited by:

    1. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    2. Phindile Mdluli & Precious Mncayi & Thabang Mc Camel, 2019. "Examining Factors that Drive Government Spending in South Africa," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912246, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    4. Selim Demez, 2021. "Validity of Wagner’s Law in EU Member Transition Economies: Panel Causality Analysis," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 199-210, July.
    5. Alimi, R. Santos, 2013. "Testing Augmented Wagner’s Law for Nigeria Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling Techniques," MPRA Paper 52319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ampah Isaac Kwesi & Kotosz Balázs, 2016. "Wagner versus Keynes: the causal nexus between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: An Empirical study of Burkina Faso," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 74-101, December.
    7. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Testing Wagner's Law in the Presence of Structural Changes: New Evidence from Six African Countries (1960-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6.
    8. Saten Kumar & Zhaoyi Cao, 2020. "Testing for structural changes in the Wagner’s Law for a sample of East Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1959-1976, October.
    9. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    10. Ebaid Ali & Bahari Zakaria, 2019. "The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s Law in Kuwait," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, April.
    11. Mohd Arshad ANSARI & Faraz KHAN & Manish Kumar SINGH, 2021. "Public expenditure and economic development: New evidence from the BRICS-SAARC-ASEAN region," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 155-174, Summer.
    12. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash & Geethanjali Nataraj, 2012. "China¡¯S Growth Story: The Role Of Physical And Social Infrastructure," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 53-75, March.
    13. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 393-406, September.
    14. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    15. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    16. Lingxiao WANG & Adelina DUMITRESCU PECULEA & Handuo XU, 2016. "The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Romania: Does it obey Wagner’s or Keynes’s Law?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 41-52, Autumn.
    17. David Sunday, Oyerinola, & Muftau Adesina, Abayomi, & Salihu Otubu, Alabi,, 2017. "Impact Of Human Capital Development On Economic Growth In Nigeria (1980 2012)," Ilorin Journal of Business and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, vol. 19(1), pages 122-133, October.
    18. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Xiao Tan, 2017. "Explaining provincial government health expenditures in China: evidence from panel data 2007–2013," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Burak Sencer Atasoy & Timur Han Gür, 2016. "Does the Wagner’s Hypothesis Hold for China? Evidence from Static and Dynamic Analyses," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(1), pages 45-60, March.
    21. Samad Bashirli & Ilkin Sabiroglu, 2013. "Testing Wagner’s Law in an Oil-Exporting Economy: the Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, November.
    22. Emilian Dobrescu, 2018. "Functional trinity of public finance in an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    23. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    24. Olalekan Charles Okunlola & Imran Usman Sani & Olumide Abiodun Ayetigbo & Olajide O. Oyadeyi, 2024. "Effect of government expenditure on real economic growth in ECOWAS: assessing the moderating role of corruption and conflict," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    25. Deepti Ahuja & Deepak Pandit, 2020. "Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Developing Countries," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 9(3), pages 228-236, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner¡¯s Law; UECM; Bounds Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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