IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/7008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Shiller

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor confidence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on questionnaire survey results 1989 1998, from surveys that I have derived in collaboration with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui. Five different time-series indicators of whether there is among investors an expectation of a speculative bubble, an unstable situation with expectations for increase in the short run only, are produced. Four different time-series indicators of whether there is an expectation of a negative speculative bubble are presented. Four different time-series indicators of investor confidence, that nothing can go wrong, are produced. Time-series variation for these indicators is significant, and cross correlations are generally positive. A bubble expectations index, a negative-bubble expectations index, and an investor confidence index are derived from these indicators. Behavior of the indicators and indexes through time is examined, and the indexes are compared with other economic variables. A notable finding is a degree of high-frequency fluctuation, semester to semester, in the indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Shiller, 1999. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," NBER Working Papers 7008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7008
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    2. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. "Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index? A Rejoinder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 809-810, June.
    3. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1996. "Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 397-421, November.
    4. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. "Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 795-800, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    2. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shiraishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm274, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    3. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2011-05, May.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857.
    5. Cavalcante, Mileno, 2008. "Preços do petróleo e bolhas especulativas: algumas evidências para o mercado de WTI [Crude oil prices and speculative bubbles: evidence from the WTI market]," MPRA Paper 28582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Pereda, Javier, 2012. "Price – Earnings Ratio for the Lima Stock Exchange: Issues and Applications," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 17(32), pages 41-52.
    7. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Arnswald, Torsten, 2001. "Investment Behaviour of German Equity Fund Managers - An Exploratory Analysis of Survey Data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    10. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    11. Kerim Eser AFÞAR & Zakayo S. KISAVA, 2018. "The analysis of bubbles and crashes on financial markets for emerging economies: Evidenced From BRICS," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-11, March.
    12. Mr. Subir Lall & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2009/100, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    14. Rani Hoitash & Murugappa (Murgie) Krishnan, 2008. "Herding, momentum and investor over-reaction," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 25-47, January.
    15. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    16. Kim Kaivanto & Peng Zhang, 2019. "Investor Sentiment as a Predictor of Market Returns," Working Papers 268005798, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Schmukler, Sergio L, 2000. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 177-195, July.
    3. Huerta, Daniel & Egly, Peter V. & Escobari, Diego, 2015. "The Liquidity Crisis, Investor Sentiment, and REIT Returns and Volatility," EconStor Preprints 123499, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. J. Christopher Hughen & Cynthia G. McDonald, 2006. "Does Order Flow Commonality Extend Across Trade Sizes and Securities?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 107-128, March.
    5. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2001. "The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows," NBER Working Papers 8472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Iuliana Ismailescu, 2008. "Determinants of the Time-Variation in Emerging-Market Closed-End Fund Premiums: A Comparison between Equity and Bond Funds," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 52(2), pages 54-64, October.
    8. Ben Branch & Aixin Ma & Jill Sawyer, 2010. "Around‐the‐Clock Performance of Closed‐End Funds," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1177-1196, September.
    9. Flynn, Sean Masaki, 2004. "Arbitrage in Closed-end Funds: New Evidence," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 57, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    10. Arquette, Gregory C. & Brown Jr., William O. & Burdekin, Richard C.K., 2008. "US ADR and Hong Kong H-share discounts of Shanghai-listed firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1916-1927, September.
    11. Philipp Kellerhals, B. & Schobel, Rainer, 2002. "The dynamic behavior of closed-end funds and its implication for pricing, forecasting, and trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1615-1643, August.
    12. Peter Klibanoff & Owen Lamont & Thierry A. Wizman, "undated". "Investor Reaction to Salient News in Closed-End Country Funds," CRSP working papers 346, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    13. Severn, Alan K., 1998. "Closed-end funds and sentiment risk," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 103-119.
    14. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin, 2013. "An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 909-937, October.
    15. Lenkey, Stephen L., 2015. "The closed-end fund puzzle: Management fees and private information," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 112-129.
    16. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    17. Alan K. Severn, 1998. "Closed‐end funds and sentiment risk," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 103-119.
    18. Timothy R. Burch & Douglas R. Emery & Michael E. Fuerst, 2003. "What Can “Nine‐Eleven” Tell Us about Closed‐end Fund Discounts and Investor Sentiment?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 515-529, November.
    19. Warren Bailey & Lin Zheng & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "What Makes the VIX Tick?," Working Papers 222012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    20. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Redfern, Luke, 2009. "Sentiment effects on Chinese share prices and savings deposits: The post-2003 experience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 246-261, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.