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An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications

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  • John T. Cuddington

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

This paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebish-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.

Suggested Citation

  • John T. Cuddington, 1992. "An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(2), pages 159-179.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:7:y:1992:i:2:p:159-179
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    File URL: https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/299/302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2018. "The Prebish–Singer hypothesis in the post-colonial era: Evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 86-89.
    2. John T. Cuddington & Rodney Ludema & Shamila A Jayasuriya, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 140, Central Bank of Chile.
      • Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    3. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
    4. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    5. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Fernandez, Viviana, 2019. "A readily computable commodity price index: 1900–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    7. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    8. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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