IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jfeppp/jfep-02-2020-0021.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial inclusion and business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Peterson K. Ozili

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial inclusion and the business cycle. Design/methodology/approach - Regression methodology is used to analyze the association between financial inclusion and the business cycle. Findings - Using regression estimation, the findings reveal that the level of savings and the number of active formal account ownership are pro-cyclical with fluctuations in the business cycle. Also, savings by adults particularly for women and poor people declines during recessionary periods while the number of active formal account ownership declines for the adult population especially for women during recessionary periods. The findings also reveal that not all indicators of financial inclusion are pro-cyclical with fluctuating business cycles. Practical implications - The implication of this observed pro-cyclical effect is that individuals and households will exit the formal financial sector during a recession, as banks become unwilling to lend money to individuals and households during bad times and this will lead to financial exclusion and vice versa. Policymakers seeking to increase the level of financial inclusion in their countries should focus on the timing of financial inclusion policies along the business cycle as the findings suggest that it might be more difficult to achieve financial inclusion objectives during recessions or periods of economic downturns. Originality/value - The current debate on financial inclusion pays little attention to whether financial inclusion is pro-cyclical with the fluctuating business cycle. This study explores the association between financial inclusion and the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Peterson K. Ozili, 2020. "Financial inclusion and business cycles," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 180-199, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-02-2020-0021
    DOI: 10.1108/JFEP-02-2020-0021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-02-2020-0021/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-02-2020-0021/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JFEP-02-2020-0021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Weill, Laurent, 2015. "Understanding financial inclusion in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 196-206.
    2. Grohmann, Antonia & Klühs, Theres & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2018. "Does financial literacy improve financial inclusion? Cross country evidence," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 111, pages 84-96.
    3. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    4. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2016. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 968-983, December.
    5. Martin Brown & Benjamin Guin & Karolin Kirschenmann, 2016. "Microfinance Banks and Financial Inclusion," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 907-946.
    6. Peterson K. Ozili & Erick Outa, 2017. "Bank loan loss provisions research: A review," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(3), pages 144-163, September.
    7. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    8. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles Implications for EMU enlargement1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, July.
    9. Chen,Rong - DECID & Divanbeigi,Raian, 2019. "Can Regulation Promote Financial Inclusion ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8711, The World Bank.
    10. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Leora Klapper, 2013. "Measuring Financial Inclusion: Explaining Variation in Use of Financial Services across and within Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 279-340.
    11. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Robert Cull & Jun ‘QJ’ Qian & Lemma Senbet & Patricio Valenzuela, 2014. "The African Financial Development and Financial Inclusion Gaps," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(5), pages 614-642.
    12. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    14. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2013. "Unemployment in the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 385-403, July.
    15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-1214, December.
    16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2016. "Unemployment and Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1523-1569, July.
    17. Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Mihasonirina Andrianaivo, 2011. "ICT, Financial Inclusion, and Growth: Evidence from African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/073, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    19. Ebenezer Bugri Anarfo & Joshua Yindenaba Abor & Kofi Achampong Osei & Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Sahara Africa: A Panel VAR Approach," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 549-572, October.
    20. Bar-Isaac, Heski & Shapiro, Joel, 2013. "Ratings quality over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-78.
    21. Peterson K. Ozili, 2018. "Impact of digital finance on financial inclusion and stability," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 18(4), pages 329-340, December.
    22. Peterson K. Ozili, 2018. "Bank loan loss provisions, investor protection and the macroeconomy," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(1), pages 45-65, January.
    23. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2014. "Financial inclusion and optimal monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 476, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    25. Mihasonirina Andrianaivo & Kangni Kpodar, 2012. "Mobile Phones, Financial Inclusion, and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(2).
    26. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2000. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 928-960, October.
    27. Ozili, Peterson K, 2017. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions, Investor Protection and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 80147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Kangni Kpodar & Mihasonirina Andrianaivo, 2011. "ICT, Financial Inclusion and Growth: Evidence from African Countries," Post-Print halshs-00602411, HAL.
    29. Roy Thurik, 2014. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-90, October.
    30. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Leora Klapper, 2013. "Measuring Financial Inclusion: Explaining Variation in Use of Financial Services across and within Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 279-340.
    31. Kim, Dai-Won & Yu, Jung-Suk & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2018. "Financial inclusion and economic growth in OIC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-14.
    32. Young Lee & Taeyoon Sung, 2007. "Fiscal Policy, Business Cycles and Economic Stabilisation: Evidence from Industrialised and Developing Countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 437-462, December.
    33. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2009. "Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(18), pages 2309-2322.
    34. Dipasha Sharma, 2016. "Nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(1), pages 13-36, April.
    35. Peter J. Morgan & Victor Pontines, 2014. "Financial Stability and Financial Inclusion," Microeconomics Working Papers 24278, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    36. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 2001. "A New Approach To The Analysis Of Business Cycle Transitions In A Model Of Output And Employment," Economics Series Working Papers 9959, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Inklaar, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2001. "Is There Really a European Business Cycle? A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 215-220, April.
    38. Sanjaya Kumar Lenka & Ruchi Sharma, 2017. "Does Financial Inclusion Spur Economic Growth in India?," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(3), pages 215-228, July-Sept.
    39. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2018. "Impact of Digital Finance on Financial Inclusion and Stability," MPRA Paper 84771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Folorunsho M. Ajide, 2021. "Shadow economy in Africa: how relevant is financial inclusion?," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 297-316, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peterson K. Ozili, 2021. "Financial inclusion research around the world: A review," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 457-479, October.
    2. Weidong Chen & Xiaohui Yuan, 2021. "Financial inclusion in China: an overview," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Amit Pandey & Ravi Kiran & Rakesh Kumar Sharma, 2022. "Investigating the Impact of Financial Inclusion Drivers, Financial Literacy and Financial Initiatives in Fostering Sustainable Growth in North India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Zhao, Yang & Goodell, John W. & Dong, Qingli & Wang, Yong & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2022. "Overcoming spatial stratification of fintech inclusion: Inferences from across Chinese provinces to guide policy makers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Amit Pandey & Ravi Kiran & Rakesh Kumar Sharma, 2023. "Investigating the Determinants of Financial Inclusion in BRICS Economies: Panel Data Analysis Using Fixed-Effect and Cross-Section Random Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Shruti Malik & Girish Chandra Maheshwari & Archana Singh, 2019. "Understanding Financial Inclusion in India: A Theoretical Framework Building Through SAP–LAP and Efficient IRP," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 20(2), pages 117-140, June.
    7. Shahid Manzoor Shah & Amjad Ali, 2022. "A Survey on Financial Inclusion: Theoretical and Empirical Literature Review," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 310-330, December.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Pei-Fen & Chu, Pin-Jie, 2023. "Green recovery through financial inclusion of mobile payment: A study of low- and middle-income Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 729-747.
    9. Aishwarya Nagpal & Megha Jain & Abhay Jain, 2020. "Determining the role of digital technology, governance and institutions in advancing financial inclusion in BRICS nations using probit regression analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(2), pages 443-459, December.
    10. Kouladoum, Jean-Claude & Wirajing, Muhamadu Awal Kindzeka & Nchofoung, Tii N., 2022. "Digital technologies and financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(9).
    11. Ozili, Peterson K, 2020. "Theories of financial inclusion," MPRA Paper 101810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ma, Yechi & Ding, Yibing & Bu, Ziwen & Li, Suyang, 2024. "Political freedom and financial inclusion: Unraveling social trust and political rent-seeking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 46-65.
    13. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Nair, Mahendhiran S. & Hall, John H. & Bennett, Sara E., 2021. "Sustainable economic development in India: The dynamics between financial inclusion, ICT development, and economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. Guo‐Hua Cao & Jing Zhang, 2022. "The entrepreneurial ecosystem of inclusive finance and entrepreneurship: A theoretical and empirical test in China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1547-1568, January.
    15. Claude Bernard Lontchi & Baochen Yang & Yunpeng Su, 2022. "The Mediating Effect of Financial Literacy and the Moderating Role of Social Capital in the Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Development in Cameroon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    16. Gallego-Losada, María-Jesús & Montero-Navarro, Antonio & García-Abajo, Elisa & Gallego-Losada, Rocío, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion. Visualizing the academic literature," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Financial inclusion-exclusion paradox: how banked adults become unbanked again," MPRA Paper 108494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dar, Shafkat Shafi & Sahu, Sohini, 2022. "The effect of language on financial inclusion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    19. Damane, Moeti & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2024. "The impact of financial inclusion on financial stability: review of theories and international evidence," MPRA Paper 120369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Menyelim M. Chima & Abiola Ayopo Babajide & Alex Adegboye & Segun Kehinde & Oluwatobi Fasheyitan, 2021. "The Relevance of Financial Inclusion on Sustainable Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cycles; Financial institutions and services; Business fluctuations; Financial inclusion; Pro-cyclicality; Business cycles; Financial crisis; Access to finance; Economic cycles; GDP; D14; D18; G21; G28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-02-2020-0021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.