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Non-linear dynamics of employment, output and real wages in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Adian A. McFarlane
  • Anupam Das
  • Murshed Chowdhury

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship among employment, real wage, and output growth in Canada. Design/methodology/approach - – Using quarterly data from 1994q2 to 2012q3, this paper employs a vector autoregressive framework while allowing for the derivation of output from its historical maximum over the sample period to affect future output, employment, and real wage growth dynamics. Findings - – There are three main findings: output growth is significant in predicting employment growth and vice versa; real wage growth neither Granger causes employment growth nor output growth, but employment growth Granger causes real wage growth; and non-linear dynamics, captured by the current depth regression (CDR) effect term, through the sign as well as the magnitude of output changes, are important in characterizing the evolution of the relationship among output, employment, and real wage growth. Practical implications - – The findings of this research have significant implications for policy makers. Output and employment growth are important in forecasting each other in Canada. In contrast to the mainstream theory, real growth is insignificant in explaining the future dynamics of employment in Canada. Policies need to be formulated to encourage the growth of employment to ensure sustain output growth. Originality/value - – This study examines empirically the real output, real wage, and employment link in Canada. This study uses the most recently revised GDP data arising from the 2012 Historical Revision of the Canadian System of National Accounts. The econometric methodology involves the standard vector autoregression (VAR) model to which the authors introduce non-linear dynamics through a term that controls for the deviation of output from its preceding historical maximum: the CDR effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Adian A. McFarlane & Anupam Das & Murshed Chowdhury, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics of employment, output and real wages in Canada," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(4), pages 554-568, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:41:y:2014:i:4:p:554-568
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-02-2013-0022
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku, 2020. "Exchange rate changes and money demand in Albania: a nonlinear ARDL analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 619-633, November.
    2. Das, Anupam & McFarlane, Adian, 2019. "Non-linear dynamics of electric power losses, electricity consumption, and GDP in Jamaica," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Das, Anupam & Brown, Leanora & Mcfarlane, Adian, 2023. "Economic Misery and Remittances in Jamaica," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(2), pages 33-52, June.
    4. Nur Feriyanto, 2020. "Economic and Tourism Factors Affecting the Real Gross Regional Domestic Product: A Case Study," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 736-756.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 943-973, November.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi & Sahar Bahmani, 2019. "More evidence on the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money: evidence from Asian," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 485-495, March.
    8. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Alexandru Manole & Alina-Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "Using the System of National Accounts in the Forecasting Activity," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 91-96, April.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2021. "U.S. – Italy commodity trade and the J-curve: new evidence from asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-103, February.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kanitpong, Tatchawan, 2019. "Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2020. "The South Africa‐U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 186-203, June.
    12. Megbowon Ebenezer Toyin & Ojo Oloruntimilehin Sola & Olasehinde Timilehin John, 2017. "Agro-processing Output and Agricultural Sector Employment: Evidence from South Africa," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(2), pages 174-184, April.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2019. "An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 2854-2899, October.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2018. "Asymmetric Cointegration, Nonlinear ARDL, and the J-Curve: A Bilateral Analysis of China and Its 21 Trading Partners," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 3131-3151, October.
    16. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Nouira, Ridha, 2021. "U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).

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