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On a regime switching illiquid high volatile prediction model for cryptocurrencies

Author

Listed:
  • Youssef El-Khatib
  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

Abstract

Purpose - The current paper proposes a prediction model for a cryptocurrency that encompasses three properties observed in the markets for cryptocurrencies—namely high volatility, illiquidity, and regime shifts. As far as the authors’ knowledge extends, this paper is the first attempt to introduce a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for pricing cryptocurrencies while explicitly integrating the mentioned three significant stylized facts. Design/methodology/approach - Cryptocurrencies are increasingly utilized by investors and financial institutions worldwide as an alternative means of exchange. To the authors’ best knowledge, there is no SDE in the literature that can be used for representing and evaluating the data-generating process for the price of a cryptocurrency. Findings - By using Ito calculus, the authors provide a solution for the suggested SDE along with mathematical proof. Numerical simulations are performed and compared to the real data, which seems to capture the dynamics of the price path of two main cryptocurrencies in the real markets. Originality/value - The stochastic differential model that is introduced and solved in this article is expected to be useful for the pricing of cryptocurrencies in situations of high volatility combined with structural changes and illiquidity. These attributes are apparent in the real markets for cryptocurrencies; therefore, accounting explicitly for these underlying characteristics is a necessary condition for accurate evaluation of cryptocurrencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Youssef El-Khatib & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2023. "On a regime switching illiquid high volatile prediction model for cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(2), pages 485-498, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-03-2023-0134
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-03-2023-0134
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic modeling; Cryptocurrencies; Illiquid; High volatility; Regime switching; Continuous time Markov chain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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