IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ijoemp/ijoem-02-2020-0134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil price shocks and emerging stock markets revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Debojyoti Das
  • M Kannadhasan
  • Malay Bhattacharyya

Abstract

Purpose - The study aims to understand the role of different streams of oil shocks (demand, supply and risk shocks) on the oil-importing and exporting countries' stock returns. The study also examines the impact of crude oil shocks across the economic regimes and market states. Besides, the role of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 in shaping the oil–stock relationship is also investigated. Design/methodology/approach - The authors revisit the impact of oil shocks on emerging equity markets by using the novel shock decomposition algorithm proposed by Ready (2018). The authors consider 24 emerging equity markets for the period spanning over July 15, 2002, to June 18, 2018, and bifurcate them based on oil dependence. The authors use rolling and dynamic conditional correlation analysis to understand the time-varying co-movements between oil prices and stock returns. The regime and state-specific dependence of stock returns on the structural oil shocks are captured by the Markov regime switching and quantile regression models. Findings - The authors find that the demand shocks are positively associated with stock markets, whereas the supply shocks are negatively related, except in some of the oil-exporting countries. The risk-based shocks also appear to have a negative association with stocks. The authors do not find evidence of strong regime dependence and the direction of relationship across the high and low regimes is somewhat stable. Further, the authors observe an intense oil–stock relationship in the bearish market conditions. Besides, the authors also report evidences of changes in oil–stock relationship onset the GFC. Originality/value - This is among the first studies to use the oil shock decomposition algorithm of Ready (2018) in the context of emerging equity markets. Additionally, oil shocks' role on the stock market movements across the regimes and market states is studied comprehensively. Thus, the nature of oil shock and the extent to which the emerging markets are exposed is observed in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Debojyoti Das & M Kannadhasan & Malay Bhattacharyya, 2020. "Oil price shocks and emerging stock markets revisited," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(6), pages 1583-1614, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijoemp:ijoem-02-2020-0134
    DOI: 10.1108/IJOEM-02-2020-0134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJOEM-02-2020-0134/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJOEM-02-2020-0134/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/IJOEM-02-2020-0134?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    2. Charbel Bassil & Hassan Hamadi & Marion Bteich, 2018. "Terrorism in OPEC countries and oil prices," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(6), pages 1732-1750, November.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market activities: Asymmetric effect with quantile regression," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(9), pages 1910-1920.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Bhattacharyya, Malay & Das, Debojyoti & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Output and stock prices: New evidence from the robust wavelet approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 154-160.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    7. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    8. Ramaprasad Bhar & Biljana Nikolova, 2010. "Global Oil Prices, Oil Industry And Equity Returns: Russian Experience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 169-186, May.
    9. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    10. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Trabelsi, Nader & Alqahtani, Faisal & Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2020. "Systemic risk spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns of G7 economies: Conditional value-at-risk and marginal expected shortfall approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Zhu, Huiming & Guo, Yawei & You, Wanhai & Xu, Yaqin, 2016. "The heterogeneity dependence between crude oil price changes and industry stock market returns in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 30-41.
    13. Robert C Ready, 2018. "Oil Prices and the Stock Market [The vix, the variance premium and stock market volatility]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 155-176.
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    15. Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The structure and degree of dependence: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 786-798.
    16. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    17. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
    18. Krolzig, H., 1996. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    19. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from European Data," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1), pages 35-56, January.
    20. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 825-831.
    21. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 356-361, January.
    22. Yang Xiao, 2020. "Forecasting extreme risk using regime-switching GARCH models: a case from an energy commodity," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(8), pages 1556-1582, July.
    23. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2018. "Supply and demand driven oil price changes and their non-linear impact on precious metal returns: A Markov regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 108-121.
    24. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
    25. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August.
    26. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    27. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Bashmakova, Yuliya, 2013. "Assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets: A panel data approach for ten Central and Eastern European Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 204-211.
    28. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    29. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    30. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-17.
    31. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M., 2020. "The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 563-581.
    32. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Trabelsi, Nader & Alqahtani, Faisal & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Analysing systemic risk and time-frequency quantile dependence between crude oil prices and BRICS equity markets indices: A new look," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 445-466.
    33. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Quantile dependence of oil price movements and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 33-49.
    34. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    35. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    36. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    37. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2015. "How do U.S. stock returns respond differently to oil price shocks pre-crisis, within the financial crisis, and post-crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 47-62.
    38. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    39. Bhaskar Bagchi, 2017. "Volatility spillovers between crude oil price and stock markets: evidence from BRIC countries," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 352-365, April.
    40. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    41. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    42. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    43. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    44. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 111-117.
    45. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    46. Arfaoui Mongi, 2019. "The global influence of oil futures-prices on Dow Jones Islamic stock indexes," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 523-549, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hanif, Waqas & Teplova, Tamara & Rodina, Victoria & Alomari, Mohammed & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Volatility spillovers and frequency dependence between oil price shocks and green stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M., 2020. "The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 563-581.
    2. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    3. Ziadat, Salem Adel & McMillan, David G. & Herbst, Patrick, 2022. "Oil shocks and equity returns during bull and bear markets: The case of oil importing and exporting nations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    5. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2022. "Extreme dependence between structural oil shocks and stock markets in GCC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    11. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2023. "Changes in oil price and economic policy uncertainty and the G7 stock returns: evidence from asymmetric quantile regression analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1849-1893, June.
    12. Xiao, Jihong & Hu, Chunyan & Ouyang, Guangda & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Impacts of oil implied volatility shocks on stock implied volatility in China: Empirical evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 297-309.
    13. McMillan, David G. & Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick, 2021. "The role of oil as a determinant of stock market interdependence: The case of the USA and GCC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Zhu, Bo, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market volatility: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Salem Adel Ziadat & David G. McMillan, 2022. "Oil-stock nexus: the role of oil shocks for GCC markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(5), pages 801-818, May.
    16. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.
    17. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Nautiyal, Neeraj & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ghardallou, Wafa & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Is the impact of oil shocks more pronounced during extreme market conditions?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    18. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    19. Huiming Zhu & Xianfang Su & Yawei Guo & Yinghua Ren, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from a Quantile Impulse Response Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-19, August.
    20. Zhang, Hao & Cai, Guixin & Yang, Dongxiao, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on clean energy stocks: Fresh evidence from multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijoemp:ijoem-02-2020-0134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.