IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v73y2018icp108-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Supply and demand driven oil price changes and their non-linear impact on precious metal returns: A Markov regime switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah
  • Rahman, Md Lutfur
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Rehman, Mobeen Ur

Abstract

This paper examines the nonlinear effect of oil price shocks on precious metal returns using Markov regime switching regression. We use Ready's (2018) approach to decompose oil price changes into supply, demand, and risk driven shocks. Results indicate a significant positive impact of demand and supply shocks and a negative impact of risk shocks on precious metal returns. Although we find evidence of switching between low and high volatility regimes, we do not find strong regime effect on supply or demand shocks' contemporaneous relationship with precious metal returns. However, risk shocks' influence on precious metal returns is strongly regime dependent. These results generally hold for different distributional specification of error terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2018. "Supply and demand driven oil price changes and their non-linear impact on precious metal returns: A Markov regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 108-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:108-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988318301919
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil; Precious metal; Demand and supply shocks; VAR; Markov regime switching regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:108-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.