IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/afrpps/v71y2011i1p5-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Competing risks models of Farm Service Agency seven‐year direct operating loans

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce L. Dixon
  • Bruce L. Ahrendsen
  • Brandon R. McFadden
  • Diana M. Danforth
  • Monica Foianini
  • Sandra J. Hamm

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to apply duration methods to a sample of Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct, seven‐year operating loans to identify those variables that influence the time to loan termination and type of termination. Variables include both those known at time of loan origination and those that characterize the changing economic environment over the life of the loan. Also, to examine the impact of various FSA programs promoting policy objectives. Design/methodology/approach - A systematic sample of 877 seven‐year, FSA direct loans originated between October 1, 1993 and September 30, 1996 was collected. Cox regression, competing risks models are estimated as a function of borrower and loan characteristics observable at loan origination. Economic indicator variables emphasizing the farm economy and observed quarterly over the life of the loan are also included as explanatory variables. Findings - Loan characteristics, borrower financial characteristics and degree of borrower interaction with FSA observable at origin are significant variables in determining type of loan outcome (default or paid‐in‐full) and time to outcome. Changes in the economic environment and farm economy during the life of the loan are significant. Research limitations/implications - The sample consists only of FSA direct loans which implies borrowers are at financial margin. Application of method to agricultural loans from conventional commercial lenders could identify different significant factors. Practical implications - Using length of time to loan termination instead of just type of outcome provides for a richer analysis of loan performance. Loan performance over time is influenced by the larger economy and should be incorporated into loan performance modeling. Originality/value - The study described in the paper demonstrates use of competing risks models on intermediate agricultural loans and develops how this technique can be used to learn about dynamic aspects of loan performance. Sample consists of observations on individual FSA direct loan borrowers. The FSA direct loan program is the major source of credit for agricultural borrowers at the financial margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce L. Dixon & Bruce L. Ahrendsen & Brandon R. McFadden & Diana M. Danforth & Monica Foianini & Sandra J. Hamm, 2011. "Competing risks models of Farm Service Agency seven‐year direct operating loans," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(1), pages 5-24, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:71:y:2011:i:1:p:5-24
    DOI: 10.1108/00021461111128138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/00021461111128138/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/00021461111128138/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/00021461111128138?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glennon, Dennis & Nigro, Peter, 2005. "Measuring the Default Risk of Small Business Loans: A Survival Analysis Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 923-947, October.
    2. Escalante, Cesar L. & Brooks, Rodney L. & Epperson, James E. & Stegelin, Forrest E., 2006. "Credit Risk Assessment and Racial Minority Lending at the Farm Service Agency," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-15, April.
    3. repec:eme:afrpps:v:67:y:2007:i:1:p:13-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nwoha, Ogbonnaya John & Ahrendsen, Bruce L. & Dixon, Bruce L. & Chavez, Eddie C. & Hamm, Sandra J. & Settlage, Daniel M. & Danforth, Diana M., 2005. "Farm Service Agency Direct Farm Loan Program Effectiveness Study," Research Reports 15772, University of Arkansas, Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station.
    5. Jonathan B. Dressler & Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2010. "Survival analysis and mortgage termination at AgChoice ACA," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 21-36, May.
    6. Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, 2000. "The Hazard Rates of First and Second Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 275-293, May.
    7. repec:eme:afrpps:v:67:y:2007:i:1:p:75-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Erik Heitfield & Tarun Sabarwal, 2004. "What Drives Default and Prepayment on Subprime Auto Loans?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 457-477, December.
    9. Calum G. Turvey & Alfons Weersink, 1997. "Credit Risk and the Demand for Agricultural Loans," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 45(3), pages 201-217, November.
    10. Sam Hakim & Mahmoud Haddad, 1999. "Borrower attributes and the risk of default of conventional mortgages," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 210-220, June.
    11. Allen M. Featherstone & Christine A. Wilson & Terry L. Kastens & John D. Jones, 2007. "Factors affecting the agricultural loan decision‐making process," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 67(1), pages 13-33, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Landerito, Aiko O. & Dixon, Bruce L. & Ahrendsen, Bruce L. & Hamm, Sandra J. & Danforth, Diana M., 2009. "Analyzing FSA Direct Loan Borrower Payback Histories: Predictors of Financial Improvement and Loan Servicing Actions," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49340, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Geoffroy Enjolras & Philippe Madiès, 2019. "The determinants of loan acceptance: a case study of French farms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 358-371.
    3. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.
    4. Dixon, Bruce L. & Ahrendsen, Bruce L. & Nwoha, O. John & Hamm, Sandra J. & Danforth, Diana M., 2007. "FSA Direct Farm Loan Program Graduation Rates and Reasons for Exiting," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 471-487, December.
    5. DeYoung, Robert & Glennon, Dennis & Nigro, Peter, 2008. "Borrower-lender distance, credit scoring, and loan performance: Evidence from informational-opaque small business borrowers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 113-143, January.
    6. Huneeus, Federico & Kaboski, Joseph & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Vera, Mario, 2022. "The Distribution of Crisis Credit: Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 17061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Escalante, Cesar L. & Epperson, James E. & Raghunathan, Uthra, 2008. "Investigating Gender Bias in Farm Service Agency’s Lending Decisions," 2007 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 4-5, 2007, St. Louis, Missouri 48144, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    8. Guido Max Mantovani & Gregory Gadzinski, 2022. "How to Rate the Financial Performance of Private Companies? A Tailored Integrated Rating Methodology Applied to North-Eastern Italian Districts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, October.
    9. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Rebeca Peláez & Ricardo Cao & Juan M. Vilar, 2022. "Bootstrap Bandwidth Selection and Confidence Regions for Double Smoothed Default Probability Estimation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, May.
    11. Peter Howley & Emma Dillon, 2012. "Factors affecting the level of farm indebtedness: the role of farming attitudes," Working Papers 1201, Rural Economy and Development Programme,Teagasc.
    12. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    13. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
    14. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
    15. Danis, Michelle A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2008. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 67-90.
    16. Sarah Sanya & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2010. "Post-Crisis Bank Behavior: Lessons From Mercosur," IMF Working Papers 2010/001, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Bradley Katcher & Geng Li & Alvaro Mezza & Steve Ramos, 2024. "One Month Longer, One Month Later? Prepayments in the Auto Loan Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Enrique Batiz‐Zuk & Fabrizio López‐Gallo & Abdulkadir Mohamed & Fátima Sánchez‐Cajal, 2022. "Determinants of loan survival rates for small and medium‐sized enterprises: Evidence from an emerging economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4741-4755, October.
    19. Wolff, Christian & Bams, Dennis & Pisa, Magdalena, 2015. "Credit risk characteristics of US small business portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 10889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 141-159, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:71:y:2011:i:1:p:5-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.