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Balance sheet recession as the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Richard C. Koo

    (Nomura Researcj Institute)

Abstract

Once every several decades, the private sector loses its mind in a bubble, leverages itself up to the hilt, and is forced into debt minimization in order to remove its debt overhang following the crash. When the private sector as a whole is deleveraging, even at record low interest rates, monetary policy is largely ineffective while fiscal policy becomes absolutely essential in keeping both the economy and money supply from shrinking. The superior effectiveness of monetary policy during private sector profit maximization and of fiscal policy during private sector debt minimization indicates that the latter was the long-overlooked ‘other half’ of macroeconomics.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard C. Koo, 2013. "Balance sheet recession as the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 136-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:ejeepi:v:10:y:2013:i:2:p136-157
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    Cited by:

    1. Joerg Mayer, 2017. "How Could the South Respond to Secular Stagnation in the North?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 314-335, February.
    2. Allen, Cían, 2019. "Revisiting external imbalances: Insights from sectoral accounts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 67-101.
    3. Florent MCISAAC & Florent Mc ISAAC, 2017. "An Input-Output Analysis: What Would a Low-Carbon Economy for Brazil Mean?," Working Paper f2f77b78-bd3b-4408-b3e9-d, Agence française de développement.
    4. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 439-458, July.
    5. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2017. "The performativity of potential output: pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 904-928, September.
    6. Unger, Robert, 2016. "Traditional banks, shadow banks and the US credit boom: Credit origination versus financing," Discussion Papers 11/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Eckhard Hein, 2016. "Secular stagnation or stagnation policy? Steindl after Summers," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(276), pages 3-47.
    8. Ursel Baumann, 2014. "Has US Household Deleveraging Ended? A Model-Based Estimate of Equilibrium Debt," Working Papers w201404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Paola D’Orazio & Marco Valente, 2018. "Do Financial Constraints Hamper Environmental Innovation Diffusion? An Agent-Based Approach," SPRU Working Paper Series 2018-10, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
    11. Florentin Glötzl & Armon Rezai, 2018. "A sectoral net lending perspective on Europe [Fiscal, foreign, and private net borrowing: widely accepted theories don’t closely fit the facts]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(3), pages 779-795.
    12. Lior Cohen & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2019. "Has the ECB’s monetary policy prompted companies to invest, or pay dividends?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4920-4938, September.
    13. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    14. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben & Onaran, Özlem, 2018. "Divergence between the core and the periphery and secular stagnation in the Eurozone," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 20405, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    15. Yannis Dafermos, 2018. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley–Minsky synthesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1277-1313.
    16. Witold Małecki, 2016. "Finansjalizacja cykli koniunkturalnych i jej konsekwencje dla polityki stabilizacyjnej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 47-68.
    17. Albuquerque Bruno & Baumann Ursel & Krustev Georgi, 2015. "US household deleveraging following the Great Recession – a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 255-307, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ‘other half’ of macroeconomics; Yin and Yang economic cycles; micro-foundation of macroeconomics; unborrowed savings; dual problem of economics; debt minimization; balance sheet recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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