IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ejn/ejefjr/v4y2016i2p12-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Negative Currency-Risk-Exposure for Turkish Equities

Author

Listed:
  • Salvatore J. Terregrossa

    (Istanbul Aydin University, Turkey)

  • Veysel Eraslan

    (Borsa Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

Currency-risk-exposure is an issue for Turkish equities, from two different angles: internationaltrade and foreign-portfolio-investment. The likely effect is positive for the former, and negative for the latter aspect. Consequently, the overall or net effect on equity value depends on which of these aspects of currency-risk-exposure has the greater impact. The present empirical analysis estimates currency risk of Turkish equities within a multi-factor regression setting, utilizing the framework of the Security Market Plane (SMP) model. The SMP model embodies a conditional relation among three variables: beta, realized excess market-return, and expected excess portfolio-return. The SMP empirical framework is extended to include a currency-risk-factor in the present analysis. The currency-risk-factor is specified as the excess return to holding foreign currency (€; $), relative to holding domestic currency (Turkish Lira). The SMP-related factor is the cross-product term of beta and realized excess market-return (ß it rMt ). A regression of realized excess portfolio-returns against the corresponding currency-risk-factor and cross product-term (ß it rMt ) finds that the Turkish stocks represented in the analysis generally have overall negative currency-risk-exposure; suggesting that unexpected currency depreciation generally leads to lower values for Turkish stocks (and portfolios of Turkish stocks). Thus, after accounting for the SMP-related interaction-effect between beta and realized excess marketreturn, currency risk is found to command a premium for the Turkish stocks represented in the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvatore J. Terregrossa & Veysel Eraslan, 2016. "Negative Currency-Risk-Exposure for Turkish Equities," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 12-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p:12-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eurasianpublications.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/EJEF-4.2.2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 101-116, March.
    2. Bernard Bollen, 2010. "The security market plane," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1231-1240.
    3. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernard Bollen & Philip Gharghori, 2016. "How is β related to asset returns?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(21), pages 1925-1935, May.
    2. Demirer, Rıza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P., 2013. "The conditional relation between dispersion and return," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 125-134.
    3. Bebchuk, Lucian A. & Cohen, Alma & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2013. "Learning and the disappearing association between governance and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 323-348.
    4. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    5. Salvatore J. Terregrossa & Veysel Eraslan, 2016. "An analysis of the relation between return and beta for portfolios of Turkish equities," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1168501-116, December.
    6. Ergun, Lerby M., 2016. "Disaster and fortune risk in asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66194, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    8. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    9. Cheong, Calvin W.H. & Sinnakkannu, Jothee & Ramasamy, Sockalingam, 2017. "On the predictability of carry trade returns: The case of the Chinese Yuan," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 358-376.
    10. Galatis Nikolaos & Nitsi Ekaterini & Theloura Chrysoula, 2020. "Investigating Financial Performance of Low-and High-Rated ETFs During the QE-Tapering," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 107-123, April.
    11. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
    12. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    13. Gordon Tang & Wai Cheong Shum, 2006. "Risk-return relationships in the Hong Kong stock market: revisit," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1047-1058.
    14. Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Honarvar, Iman & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Does oil and gold price uncertainty matter for the stock market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-285.
    15. Cotter, John & Sullivan, Niall O' & Rossi, Francesco, 2015. "The conditional pricing of systematic and idiosyncratic risk in the UK equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 184-193.
    16. Shum, Wai Cheong & Tang, Gordon Y.N., 2005. "Common risk factors in returns in Asian emerging stock markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 695-717, December.
    17. Daniel Wurstbauer & Stephan Lang & Christoph Rothballer & Wolfgang Schaefers, 2016. "Can common risk factors explain infrastructure equity returns? Evidence from European capital markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 97-120, April.
    18. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
    19. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    20. Alles, Lakshman & Murray, Louis, 2013. "Rewards for downside risk in Asian markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2501-2509.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p:12-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Esra Barakli (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.