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Does crime type matter in understanding the nexus between universal credit and crime? Evidence from England and Wales

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  • R Pickering
  • K Y Lim

Abstract

Motivated by a seemingly negative correlation between universal credit and crime in England and Wales, we present a novel theoretical framework of crime and welfare spending, where crime-specific human capital-induced heterogeneity exists between criminal activities. This provides a theoretical basis to three empirically testable propositions. We evaluate these using county-level data for 10 different crime types. We find significant heterogeneity across different crime types in affecting the crime-universal credit nexus. Notably, criminal damage and arson exhibit both positive level and introductory effects, implying these to be human capital dependent, whereas public disorder and weapons possession exhibit a negative crime-universal credit nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • R Pickering & K Y Lim, 2024. "Does crime type matter in understanding the nexus between universal credit and crime? Evidence from England and Wales," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 29(1), pages 93-131, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:124pickering
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime Heterogeneity; Crime-welfare spending nexus; England and Wales; Universal credit; Welfare spending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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