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Multiplicadores Fiscales: Evidencia Empírica para una Asignación Costo-Efectiva de la Inversión Pública

Author

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  • Osmar Bolivar

    (Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas)

Abstract

La presente investigación proporciona evidencia con relación a los efectos multiplicador de distintos tipos de inversión pública y actividades económicas, de tal manera que se constituyan en insumos para mejorar la asignación de los recursos de inversión pública con un enfoque de costo-efectividad. Entre los resultados, la evidencia sugiere que la inversiones publicas más costo-efectivas se registrarían en los sectores de saneamiento básico, hidrocarburos, urbanismo, salud y agropecuario. Asimismo, considerando que la inversión pública se enfoca principalmente en proyectos de construcción, se recomienda priorizar la construcción de edificaciones (e.g., escuelas, hospitales) por encima de las obras civiles (e.g., carreteras, puentes), porque el efecto multiplicador de la primera opción es mayor. También, se realiza un análisis para identificar destinos donde el efecto per se de la inversión sea amplificado por el efecto multiplicador intrínseco de la actividad económica de destino; los resultados sugieren priorizar las inversiones en salud, educación y agropecuaria, así como, mejorar el diseño de proyectos de inversión en actividades relacionadas con manufacturas de alimentos y diversas, hoteles y restaurantes, construcción de edificaciones y algunos servicios que son altamente dinamizadores de la economía y el empleo.

Suggested Citation

  • Osmar Bolivar, 2022. "Multiplicadores Fiscales: Evidencia Empírica para una Asignación Costo-Efectiva de la Inversión Pública," Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana, Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas de Bolivia, vol. 5(2), pages 7-64, Diciembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:efp:journl:v:5:y:2022:i:2:p:7-64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inversión Pública; Multiplicador Fiscal; Efecto Multiplicador; BSVAR; Modelo Insumo-Producto;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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