IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v100y2021ics0140988321002279.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Good policy or good luck? Analyzing the effects of fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks in Ecuador

Author

Listed:
  • García-Albán, Freddy
  • González-Astudillo, Manuel
  • Vera-Avellán, Cristhian

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework to estimate the effects of exogenous fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks on the macroeconomic activity of price-taking oil producers. We use a structural vector autoregressive model estimated with Bayesian methods and apply it to the Ecuadorian economy. Specifically, we investigate the effects of unanticipated changes in taxes, government consumption spending, government investment spending, and oil revenues on economic activity. The results show that unanticipated expansive fiscal policy either through taxes or government investment can have positive effects on output. However, contrary to most studies in the literature, consumption spending shocks do not significantly affect gross domestic product. We also find that oil revenue shocks influence all the variables in the model, evidencing the vulnerability of the Ecuadorian economy to fluctuations of oil revenues. Historically, oil revenue shocks have been the most important driving force to move output above or below trend.

Suggested Citation

  • García-Albán, Freddy & González-Astudillo, Manuel & Vera-Avellán, Cristhian, 2021. "Good policy or good luck? Analyzing the effects of fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks in Ecuador," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:100:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321002279
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321002279
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105321?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Amir Sadeghi, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries: Does the Size of Government Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2017/287, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Davide Furceri & Ms. Grace B Li, 2017. "The Macroeconomic (and Distributional) Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2017/217, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Maria A Albino & Svetlana Cerovic & Francesco Grigoli & Juan C Flores & Javier Kapsoli & Haonan Qu & Yahia Said & Bahrom Shukurov & Martin Sommer & SeokHyun Yoon, 2014. "Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/10, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1997. "Productive government expenditures and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, January.
    6. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
    7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    8. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    9. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    11. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    12. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    14. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ruy E. Lama & Juan Pablo Medina & Jorge P. Puig & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 26478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    16. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    17. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    19. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Public investment: another (different) look," Working Papers 277, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    20. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(2), pages 117-144, April.
    21. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
    22. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
    23. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    24. JonasD.M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2010. "Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 414-436, May.
    25. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    26. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    27. Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo & Mr. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina & Jorge Puig & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Guillermo Javier Vuletin, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 2019/289, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
    29. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
    30. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    31. Reyes-Loya, Manuel Lorenzo & Blanco, Lorenzo, 2008. "Measuring the importance of oil-related revenues in total fiscal income for Mexico," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2552-2568, September.
    32. Caldara, Dario & Cavallo, Michele & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2019. "Oil price elasticities and oil price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-20.
    33. Tenhofen Jörn & Wolff Guntram B. & Heppke-Falk Kirsten H., 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
    34. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 2011. "How Strong are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC?," IMF Working Papers 2011/061, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    37. Ms. Maria A Albino & Ms. Svetlana Cerovic & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Mr. Juan C Flores & Mr. Javier Kapsoli & Mr. Haonan Qu & Mr. Yahia Said & Mr. Bahrom Shukurov & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. SeokHyun Yoo, 2014. "Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2014/010, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Antonio David & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2018/142, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    40. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    42. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    43. Akin Iwayemi & Babajide Fowowe, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: empirical evidence from oil‐exporting African countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 35(3), pages 227-269, September.
    44. Prachowny,Martin F. J., 1986. "Money in the Macroeconomy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521315944, January.
    45. repec:idb:brikps:82119 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo & Leon-Diaz, John, 2020. "The Role of Institutional Quality on the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 10270, Inter-American Development Bank.
    47. Vicente Fretes-Cibils & Marcelo M. Giugale & José Roberto López-Cálix, 2003. "Ecuador : An Economic and Social Agenda in the New Millennium," World Bank Publications - Reports 14613, The World Bank Group.
    48. Reyes-Loya, Manuel Lorenzo & Blanco, Lorenzo, 2008. "Erratum to "Measuring the importance of oil related revenues in total fiscal income for Mexico" [Energy Economics 30 (2008) 2552--2568]," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3230-3230, November.
    49. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 30-34, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Díaz-Kovalenko, Igor E. & Torres, José L., 2022. "Oil price shocks, government revenues and public investment: The case of Ecuador," MPRA Paper 112268, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 2022.
    2. Manuel González-Astudillo & Juan Guerra-Salas & Avi Lipton, 2024. "Fiscal Consolidations in Commodity-Exporting Countries: A DSGE Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1015, Central Bank of Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. García-Albán, Freddy & Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel & Vera-Albán, Cristhian, 2020. "Good Luck or Good Policy? An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Revenue and Fiscal Policy Shocks: The Case of Ecuador," MPRA Paper 102592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.
    4. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    5. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Farid Zulfigarov & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2019. "Azerbaijan and its Oil Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Research Papers in Economics 2019-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    7. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
    8. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    9. Rajesh H. Acharya & Anver C. Sadath, 2018. "Revisiting the relationship between oil price and macro economy: Evidence from India," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 173-190.
    10. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 2/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    12. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Geert Langenus & Amela Hubic & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUL, pages 123-144, July.
    13. Luõs Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 925-944, June.
    14. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
    16. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    17. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    18. Jon Ellingsen & Caroline Espegren, 2022. "Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers," Working Papers No 06/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    19. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal multipliers; Oil revenues; Structural VAR; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:100:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321002279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.