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Investicije kao pokretac rasta i izlaska iz recesije

Author

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  • Žarko Primorac

    (Zagreb)

Abstract

Investicije izbijaju u prvi plan kao moguci faktor izvlacenja zemlje iz dugogodišnje krize. Planovi Vlade podcrtavaju znacaj investicija kao faktora razvoja i rasta. Posebno su akcentirane javne investicije, a mecu njima ulaganja u energetski sektor i infrastrukturu. U dosadašnjem dijelu mandata Vlade ne samo da nije došlo do pove- cavanja investicija, nego, obratno, do njihovog snažnog pada. Trend opadanja investicija prisutan je vec pet–šest godina. Udio ukupnih investicija u BDP-u je smanjen oko 18-19%, a bruto privrednih investicija na 14–15%. Kratka mecunarodna usporedba pokazuje da Hrvatska, prema tome pokazatelju, znatno zaostaje za naprednijim tranzicijskim zemljama. Investicijski sektor prate i druge neracionalnosti: nepovoljna struktura sa stanovišta odnosa izmecu privrednih i neprivrednih investicija, poremecena tehnicka struktura, niska efikasnost, dugi rokovi gradnje i efektuiranja. Spomenute neracionalnosti smanjuju prirast BDP-a koji ostvaruju investicije i time se produbljuje recesija. Nije puno bolja situacija ni na sektoru direktnih inozemnih ulaganja. Hrvatska je nekoliko godina prije krize snažno privlacila inozemna ulaganja. Ostvarila je zavidan nivo inozemnih investicija u krugu tranzicijskih zemalja. U posljednjim godinama opasno se smanjio priljev inozemnih investicija. Ako se tome doda loša namjenska i me- cusektorska struktura ulaganja, ni ovaj segment investiranja ne može se pozitivno ocijeniti. Postavlja se pitanje mogu li investicije postati faktorom dinamiziranja hrvatske privrede i izlaska iz recesijec Za razliku od sadašnjih kretanja, ima izgleda da se investicijska dinamika u zemlji intenzivira. Tome u prilog ide hrvatsko clanstvo u Europskoj uniji i mogucnost korištenja europskih fondova. Nadalje, Hrvatska ima povoljnu poziciju u energetskoj krizi Europe. Zahvaljujuci povoljnom geografskom položaju, Hrvatska može postati znacajna za nove dobavne pravce plina i nafte u zemlje Centralne Europe. Ako Hrvatska dobro iskoristi novonastalu energetsku situaciju u Europi, bolje se organizira za povlacenje europskih fondova i ulagacku klimu u zemlji ucini prihvatljivijom za inozemna ulaganja, može se znacajno poboljšati situacija na investicijskom sektoru. Na taj bi na- cin investicije ostvarile ocekivanu ulogu da postanu faktor razvoja i stabilizacije.

Suggested Citation

  • Žarko Primorac, 2014. "Investicije kao pokretac rasta i izlaska iz recesije," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 21(1), pages 67-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:67-84
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bruto investicije; investicijska potrošnja; investicijski ciklus; recesija; realna akumulacija; efikasnost i struktura investicija; ulaganja u fiksni kapital; inozemne direktne investicije /FDI/; stupanj investiranja; reindustrijalizacija; ulaganja u infrastrukturu; energetske investicije; javne investicije;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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