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Politika deviznog kursa i stopa rasta u zemljama jugoisto?ne Evrope (na primerima Srbije i Hrvatske)

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Milenkovi?

    (docent Ekonomskog fakulteta Univerziteta u Prištini sa privremenim sedištem u Kosovskoj Mitrovici, i Ekonomskog fakulteta u Subotici Univerziteta u Novom Sadu, Srbija)

  • Milenko Popovi?

    (, redovni profesor Montenegro Business School Univerziteta Mediteran, Podgorica, Crna Gora)

Abstract

Politika deviznog kursa jedna je od parcijalnih ekonomskih politika unutar jedinstvene makroekonomske politike koja, usled ?injenice da nivo deviznog kursa nacionalne valute uti?e na niz najzna?ajnijih makroekonomskih agregata, predstavlja jednu od najosetljivijih parcijalnih politika. Pošto nije i ne može biti jedna od kona?nih, ve? je uvek jedna od intermedijarnih politika, politika deviznog kursa se prilago?ava „starijim“ parcijalnim politikama unutar jedinstvene makroekonomske politike, i to: platnobilansnoj politici, monetarno-fiskalnoj politici, politici privla?enja stranog kapitala, politici nacionalne konkurentnosti, stabilizacionoj politici, itd, a naro?ito politici privrednog razvoja, kao najvažnijoj parcijalnoj politici unutar jedinstvene makroekonomske politike, usled ?injenice da je privredni rast uvek najvažniji kona?ni makroekonomski cilj na dugi rok. U radu se razmatra politika deviznog kursa u Srbiji i Hrvatskoj, kao predstavnicama zemalja jugoisto?ne Evrope, ali ne sama za sebe – izolovano – ve? njen me?uodnos sa politikom privrednog razvoja. Time je napravljen pokušaj da se politika deviznog kursa ne analizira izolovano, ve? u uzro?no-posledi?noj vezi sa važnijim parcijalnim makroekonomskim politikama koje presudno uti?u i na izabrani režim deviznog kursa i na izabranu politiku deviznog kursa u širem zna?enju. Rad se sastoji iz dva dela. U prvom delu se, nakon opšteg osvrta na ciljeve politike deviznog kursa, analizira politika deviznog kursa posebno za Srbiju i Hrvatsku u poslednjih pet godina. U drugom delu se u analizu uklju?uje i politika privrednog razvoja, ta?nije izabrani model privrednog rasta, kao osnovno-opredeljuju?a determinanta izbora režima deviznog kursa i politike deviznog kursa. U?injen je napor da se to objasni kroz vezu izme?u privrednog rasta i realnog deviznog kursa polaze?i od jednostavnog modela rasta sa optimalnim deviznim kusem. Potom je u?injen i napor da se da ocena dosadašnjeg iskustva Srbije i Hrvatske polaze?i od ovakvog modela. Ova istraživanja predstavljaju samo po?etni korak u širem, sveobuhvatnijem, sagledavanju prakti?ne politike deviznog kursa, što bi moglo biti u?injeno kvantitativnom analizom uticaja referentne kamatne stope centralne banke, emisije i povla?enja instrumenata javnog duga, priliva i odliva stranih direktnih i portfolio investicija, i naravno intervencija centralne banke na deviznom tržištu, i uticaja svih pomenutih elemenata na visinu deviznog kursa, što predstavlja izazov za budu?a istraživanja.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Milenkovi? & Milenko Popovi?, 2011. "Politika deviznog kursa i stopa rasta u zemljama jugoisto?ne Evrope (na primerima Srbije i Hrvatske)," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 487-526.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:487-526
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    devizni kurs; privredni rast; Srbija; Hrvatska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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