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Do earthquakes increase or decrease crime?

Author

Listed:
  • Silverio-Murillo, Adan
  • Balmori-de-la-Miyar, Jose
  • Sobrino, Fernanda
  • Prudencio, Daniel

Abstract

Theories on the relationship between earthquakes and crime present mixed predictions. On the one hand, earthquakes improve individual cooperation, social trust, and crime reduction. On the other hand, earthquakes impact state capacity and enhance the prevalence of motivated offenders such as street gangs. This study empirically analyzes the effects of the September 2017 earthquakes in Mexico on personal crimes (assault and aggravated assault) and property crimes (vehicle theft, residential burglary, and vandalism). Using official police data, a difference-in-differences technique, and an event-study design, the results show that earthquakes increased assault by 14 percent and vandalism by 8 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Silverio-Murillo, Adan & Balmori-de-la-Miyar, Jose & Sobrino, Fernanda & Prudencio, Daniel, 2024. "Do earthquakes increase or decrease crime?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:182:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24001815
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106711
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Disasters; Earthquakes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
    • H8 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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