IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v157y2022ics0305750x22001309.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The fiscal cost of conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005–2017

Author

Listed:
  • Barrett, Philip

Abstract

I use a novel monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. Headline estimates are large, implying total revenue losses of $3bn since 2005 and that gains from peace would have been about 6 percent of GDP per year. That this is larger than estimates in cross-country studies reflects the uncommon intensity of the conflict in Afghanistan. The key challenge to identification is omitted variable bias, which I address by extending Powell’s (2021) generalized synthetic control method to a dynamic setting. This allows estimation of impulse response functions robust to a broad class of omitted variables bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrett, Philip, 2022. "The fiscal cost of conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005–2017," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:157:y:2022:i:c:s0305750x22001309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105940
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X22001309
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105940?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Sanjeev & Clements, Benedict & Bhattacharya, Rina & Chakravarti, Shamit, 2004. "Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low- and middle-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 403-421, June.
    2. Anna D'Souza & Dean Jolliffe, 2012. "Rising Food Prices and Coping Strategies: Household-level Evidence from Afghanistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 282-299, August.
    3. Hannes Mueller, 2016. "Growth and Violence: Argument for a Per Capita Measure of Civil War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 473-497, July.
    4. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    5. Coffman, Makena & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 187-205, April.
    6. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Bruck & Simon Sottsas, 2010. "A Survey Of The Global Economic Costs Of Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 165-176.
    7. Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2012. "Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 810-833, April.
    8. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    10. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    11. Ch, Rafael & Shapiro, Jacob & Steele, Abbey & Vargas, Juan F., 2018. "Endogenous Taxation in Ongoing Internal Conflict: The Case of Colombia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 996-1015, November.
    12. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio & Souza, Laura, 2017. "FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 157-168.
    13. Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    14. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    15. Kosuke Imai & Jeremy Weinstein, 2000. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War," CID Working Papers 51A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. Vincent A. Floreani & Gladys López-Acevedo & Martín Rama, 2021. "Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan’s Transition," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 1776-1790, October.
    17. Jo Thori Lind & Karl Ove Moene & Fredik Willumsen, 2014. "Opium for the Masses? Conflict-Induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 949-966, December.
    18. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-573, October.
    19. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2008. "Wars and State Capacity," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 522-530, 04-05.
    20. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2018:i:3:p:50000000003760 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra, 2020. "On the Origins of the State: Stationary Bandits and Taxation in Eastern Congo," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(1), pages 32-74.
    22. Bove, Vincenzo & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2014. "Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 113-131.
    23. Kai Gehring & Sarah Langlotz, 2018. "Resource-related Income Shocks and Conflict," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(03), pages 41-47, November.
    24. Mauricio Cardenas & Marcela Eslava & Santiago Ramirez, 2016. "Why internal conflict deteriorates state capacity? Evidence from Colombian municipalities," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 353-377, June.
    25. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
    26. Anne Evans & Nick Manning & Yasin Osmani & Anne Tully & Andrew Wilder, 2004. "A Guide to Government in Afghanistan," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14937.
    27. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    28. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    29. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    30. Parlow, Anton, 2016. "Adult Health Outcomes during War: The Case of Afghanistan," MPRA Paper 76365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. D'Souza, Anna & Jolliffe, Dean, 2010. "Rising food prices and coping strategies : household-level evidence from Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5466, The World Bank.
    32. Toomet,Ott & Blumenstock,Joshua Evan & Scherer,Thomas & Herskowitz,Sylvan Rene & Ghani,Tarek F. & Kapstein,Ethan B., 2018. "Insecurity and industrial organization : evidence from Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8301, The World Bank.
    33. Kosuke Imai & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2000. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War," CID Working Papers 51, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    34. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    35. Lisa Hultman & Jacob Kathman & Megan Shannon, 2013. "United Nations Peacekeeping and Civilian Protection in Civil War," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 875-891, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016," IMF Working Papers 2018/204, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    3. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    4. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    5. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    6. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    7. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    8. Singh, Prakarsh, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on investment decisions of farmers: evidence from the Punjab insurgency," MPRA Paper 33328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    10. Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia, 2021. "The macroeconomic costs of conflict," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," CERDI Working papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    13. Mahdi FAWAZ, 2020. "Ressources naturelles et guerres civiles au Moyen-Orient," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-09, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    14. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9624.
    15. Joseph Mawejje & Patrick McSharry, 2021. "The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1969-1990, November.
    16. M Christian Lehmann, 2023. "Foreign interests and state repression: Theory and evidence from the Armenian genocide," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(2), pages 307-321, March.
    17. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    18. Besley, Timothy & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2014. "The Legacy of Historical Conflict: Evidence from Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 319-336, May.
    19. Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "The costs of organized violence: a review of the evidence," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, March.
    20. Gehring, Kai & Langlotz, Sarah & Kienberger, Stefan, 2018. "Stimulant or depressant? Resource-related income shocks and conflict," Working Papers 0652, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:157:y:2022:i:c:s0305750x22001309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.