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Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?

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  • Sun, Xiaoqian
  • Wandelt, Sebastian
  • Zhang, Anming

Abstract

After more than a year with COVID-19, it becomes increasingly clear that certain variants of concern have the potential to be game changers, determining the future of our aviation. These variants pose significant health threats and possibly undermine ongoing vaccination efforts. Recent research showed that flight bans on the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in January 2020 were implemented too late and therefore, turned out to be largely ineffective, enabling a swift turn into a fully-blown pandemic. In this study, we investigate the following question: How effective were existing flight bans against the newly emerged variants of concern? In other words: Do airlines and countries happen to repeat the same mistake again? We analyze the spread of the three most prevalent variants of concern right now: B.1.1.7 (known as the UK variant), B.1.351 (known as the South African variant), and P.1 (known as the Brazilian variant). We find that many countries, again, implemented flights bans once the mutated virus had enough time to be imported via air transportation. To support our empirical analysis further, we designed and implemented a compartmental network spreading model on top of worldwide flight data for the years 2020 and 2021. We observe that the model predictions are rather accurate and confirm our findings. Overall, we hope that our study encourages air transportation stakeholders and policy makers to avoid repeating earlier mistakes in the future, with the ultimate goal to overcome COVID-19 entirely.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 203-215.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:152:y:2021:i:c:p:203-215
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2021.08.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Wandelt, Sebastian & Sun, Xiaoqian, 2015. "Evolution of the international air transportation country network from 2002 to 2013," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 55-78.
    3. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 115-123.
    4. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Hansen, Mark & Li, Ang, 2017. "Multiple airport regions based on inter-airport temporal distances," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 84-98.
    5. Nakamura, Hiroki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Airport risk of importation and exportation of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 40-47.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Choi, Youngran & Zou, Li & Dresner, Martin, 2022. "The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 22-30.
    5. Zhang, Linfeng & Hou, Meng & Liu, Yichen & Wang, Kun & Yang, Hangjun, 2022. "Measuring Beijing's international air connectivity and suggestions for improvement post COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 132-143.
    6. Wandelt, Sebastian & Sun, Xiaoqian & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "On the contagion leakage via incoming flights during China’s aviation policies in the fight against COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Jiang, Changmin, 2024. "Converting passenger aircraft into cargo planes under volatile market demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    8. Kotcharin, Suntichai & Maneenop, Sakkakom & Jaroenjitrkam, Anutchanat, 2023. "The impact of government policy responses on airline stock return during the COVID-19 crisis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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