IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v12y2022i1p21582440221085572.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Impact of Interprovincial Migration on the First Wave of COVID-19 Transmission in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yuwei LingHu
  • Shanjing Ren

Abstract

In the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the epidemic has spread rapidly due to interprovincial migration from Wuhan to Hubei province and to the rest of China. Based on Chinas interprovincial migration and outbreak data, this paper established panel models. The transmission of the first wave of COVID-19 of China can be divided into two stages: a phase of national outbreak caused by interprovincial migration and a phase of sustained development due to close contacts. Interprovincial migration triggered a nationwide outbreak that lasted until around 28 January 2020, about 5 days after the Wuhan lockdown. In this phase of transmission, the population inflow from Hubei province was more contagious than the inflow from other provinces. The results also show that the sum of the influence coefficients of interprovincial population inflow is less than 1, which means a state of convergence, indicating that “Wuhan lockdown†is an effective measure to cut off the spread of the epidemic by interprovincial migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuwei LingHu & Shanjing Ren, 2022. "Analysis of the Impact of Interprovincial Migration on the First Wave of COVID-19 Transmission in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:12:y:2022:i:1:p:21582440221085572
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440221085572
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440221085572
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440221085572?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Hanming & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Wang, Jiaoe, 2020. "Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 34-42.
    3. Creighton Connolly & Roger Keil & S. Harris Ali, 2021. "Extended urbanisation and the spatialities of infectious disease: Demographic change, infrastructure and governance," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(2), pages 245-263, February.
    4. Jayson S. Jia & Xin Lu & Yun Yuan & Ge Xu & Jianmin Jia & Nicholas A. Christakis, 2020. "Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7812), pages 389-394, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fang, Da & Guo, Yan, 2022. "Flow of goods to the shock of COVID-19 and toll-free highway policy: Evidence from logistics data in China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Chen, Xi & Qiu, Yun & Shi, Wei & Yu, Pei, 2022. "Key links in network interactions: Assessing route-specific travel restrictions in China during the Covid-19 pandemic," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Thombre, Anurag & Agarwal, Amit, 2021. "A paradigm shift in urban mobility: Policy insights from travel before and after COVID-19 to seize the opportunity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 335-353.
    4. Jiansuo Pei & Gaaitzen de Vries & Meng Zhang, 2022. "International trade and Covid‐19: City‐level evidence from China's lockdown policy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 670-695, June.
    5. Meng, Xin & Guo, Mingxue & Gao, Ziyou & Yang, Zhenzhen & Yuan, Zhilu & Kang, Liujiang, 2022. "The effects of Wuhan highway lockdown measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 169-180.
    6. Zhou, Xin & Liao, Wenzhu, 2023. "Research on demand forecasting and distribution of emergency medical supplies using an agent-based model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Yang, Senyan & Ning, Lianju & Jiang, Tingfeng & He, Yingqi, 2021. "Dynamic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the regional express logistics: Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 111-124.
    8. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 226-238.
    9. Kwang-Sub Lee & Jin Ki Eom, 2024. "Systematic literature review on impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding measures on mobility," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 1907-1961, October.
    10. Shi, Wei & Qiu, Yun & Yu, Pei & Chen, Xi, 2022. "Optimal Travel Restrictions in Epidemics," IZA Discussion Papers 15290, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Liu, Ning & Chen, Zhuo & Bao, Guoxian, 2021. "Role of media coverage in mitigating COVID-19 transmission: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. Boto-García, David, 2023. "Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Jianfeng Guo & Chao Deng & Fu Gu, 2021. "Vaccinations, Mobility and COVID-19 Transmission," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Zhang, Qiang & Tong, Qiong, 2021. "The economic impacts of traffic consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in China: A CGE analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 330-337.
    15. Liu, Ning & Bao, Guoxian & Wu, Shaolong, 2023. "Social implications of Covid-19: Its impact on general trust, political trust, and trust in physicians in China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    16. Fang, Guanfu & Tang, Tianyu & Zhao, Fang & Zhu, Ying, 2023. "The social scar of the pandemic: Impacts of COVID-19 exposure on interpersonal trust," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Zhang, Xiaoqian & Wang, Zhiwei, 2020. "Marketization vs. market chase: Insights from implicit government guarantees," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 435-455.
    18. Difang Huang & Ying Liang & Boyao Wu & Yanyi Ye, 2024. "Estimating the Impact of Social Distance Policy in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread with Factor-Based Imputation Approach," Papers 2405.12180, arXiv.org.
    19. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:12:y:2022:i:1:p:21582440221085572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.