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Freight options: Price modelling and empirical analysis

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  • Nomikos, Nikos K.
  • Kyriakou, Ioannis
  • Papapostolou, Nikos C.
  • Pouliasis, Panos K.

Abstract

This paper discusses an extension of the traditional lognormal representation for the risk neutral spot freight rate dynamics to a diffusion model overlaid with jumps of random magnitude and arrival. Then, we develop a valuation framework for options on the average spot freight rate, which are commonly traded in the freight derivatives market. By exploiting the computational efficiency of the proposed pricing scheme, we calibrate the jump diffusion model using market quotes of options on the trip-charter route average Baltic Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Indices. We show that the jump-extended setting yields important model improvements over the basic lognormal setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2013. "Freight options: Price modelling and empirical analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 82-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:51:y:2013:i:c:p:82-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2012.12.001
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    5. Ioannis Kyriakou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Nikos C. Papapostolou, 2016. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil prices and advances in average option pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1859-1873, December.
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    10. Lourdes Gómez-Valle & Julia Martínez-Rodríguez, 2021. "Including Jumps in the Stochastic Valuation of Freight Derivatives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Alexandridis, G. & Sahoo, S. & Visvikis, I., 2017. "Economic information transmissions and liquidity between shipping markets: New evidence from freight derivatives," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 82-104.
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    14. Zhong, Huiling & Zhang, Fa & Gu, Yimiao, 2021. "A Stackelberg game based two-stage framework to make decisions of freight rate for container shipping lines in the emerging blockchain-based market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
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    18. Vafa Arani, Hamed & Rabbani, Masoud & Rafiei, Hamed, 2016. "A revenue-sharing option contract toward coordination of supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 42-56.
    19. Fred Espen Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2016. "Stochastic modeling of Supramax spot and forward freight rates," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 18(4), pages 391-413, December.
    20. Liu, Shuai & Hua, Guowei & Cheng, T.C.E. & Dong, Jingxin, 2021. "Unmanned vehicle distribution capacity sharing with demand surge under option contracts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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